48 White Birch · Vincentown, NJ 08048

$229,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1977 2,100 sqft lot Est $370k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

What a great opportunity! This townhome is currently rented so it could either be a great investment or your future home! This is a 2 bedroom and 2 bath townhome in the Sunnybrook section of Lumberton Township and has a large living room when you first walk in which is open to a dining room with a sliding glass door to the backyard, off the dining room is the kitchen that has been updated, upstairs is a loft area great for an office or playroom, a large second bedroom, and the master suite with a full bath and walk-in closet. The home also offers a private backyard with a patio. Don't miss your opportunity to see this wonderful home!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Large living room
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LOFT AREA
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($433/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.5% in Vincentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lumberton Township Board Of Education (suburban): math 20% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #292 of 472 in NJ (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $230k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,361 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $370,144
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
714 Eayrestown Rd	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,010 (-6%)	1mo	$185,900	$184	71
44 Rockland Ter	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,095 (+2%)	6mo	$363,900	$332	53
36 Nassau Rd	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+12%)	0mo	$429,000	$358	52
8 Hollybrook Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+3%)	7mo	$324,999	$294	46
46 Rockland Ter	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-11%)	2mo	$365,000	$380	41
27 Rockland Ter	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-11%)	11mo	$340,000	$354	37
56 Nassau Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-11%)	8mo	$330,000	$344	35
12 Estate Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (+14%)	12mo	$355,000	$290	34
19 Hemsing Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-11%)	10mo	$329,000	$343	33
5 Estate Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-11%)	19mo	$337,000	$351	32
6 Hollybrook Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-11%)	9mo	$338,000	$352	31
35 Rockland Ter	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-11%)	20mo	$325,000	$339	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-34,872
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-27,064
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08048

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$372 /mo · $4,461/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,118

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $101	+0% $36	+5% $-29	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-49	+0% $36	+5% $122	+10% $207
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $95	base $36	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Mulberry Ct Lumberton, NJ	3.0	1.5	1244	$2,200	$1.77	2d	1	0.12mi
1401 Windmill Way Lumberton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	947	$2,315	$2.44	2d	29	0.44mi
100 Dorchester Dr Lumberton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$3,195	$3.02	2d	22	0.99mi
144 Washington St Unit C Mt Holly, NJ	3.0	1.0	1450	$2,370	$1.63	15d	1	1.15mi
73 Washington St Mount Holly, NJ	1.0	1.5–2.0	985	$2,200	$2.23	2d	2	1.18mi
209 Mill St Mount Holly, NJ	3.0	1.5	1274	$2,400	$1.88	2d	1	1.25mi
124 Mount Holly Ave Unit 1 Mt Holly, NJ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	2d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-17
   listed $229,900 Active
4. 2025-12-15
   historical
5. 2025-11-11
   price $259,900
6. 2025-10-20
   listed $269,900 Active
7. 2023-07-05
   historical
8. 2015-04-30
   historical
9. 2015-02-10
   listed $130,000
10. 2010-06-11
    soldstatus $135,000
11. 2010-05-27
    soldstatus $135,000
12. 2010-05-27
    soldstatus $135,000
13. 2010-04-29
    historical
14. 2010-02-26
    listed $134,900
15. 2010-02-26
    listed $134,900
16. 1983-08-01
    soldstatus $44,850
17. 1979-01-01
    soldstatus $32,490

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,461 · $372/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,093 · $424/mo
• Expected delta: +$632/yr (+$53/mo · 14.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$4,461
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $1,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton Township Board Of Education
• NCES district ID: 3409180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $81,262
• Composite: 30.76/100
• National rank: #6157
• State rank: #292 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vincentown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Burlington County · 323,710 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 12,882
• Household income: $113,440
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 365.0

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.09%
• Current HPI: 296.5422
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+607.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $259,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-05 Rental Removed — BRIGHTMLS
• 2015-04-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-10 Listed $130,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2010-05-27 Sold (MLS) $135,000 TREND
• 2010-05-27 Sold (MLS) $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-02-26 Listed $134,900 TREND
• 2010-02-26 Listed $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $44,850 Public Records
• 1979-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,490 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,461 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.