1241 Tidal St · Haines City, FL 33844

$319,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Land · 91 Days on market

Built 2025 5,863 sqft lot $51/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Under Construction. BELOW MARKET INTEREST RATES with use of Seller's Preferred Lender. Discover a world of effortless elegance and comfort with the Valeria, a single-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and a 2-car garage. The foyer leads to three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a convenient laundry room with washer and dryer included. The vaulted-ceilings and open concept living, dining, and kitchen areas are perfect for entertaining or cozy family nights, all enhanced by sleek quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Enjoy seamless indoor-outdoor living with access to the covered lanai through sl

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Charming landscaping
• Covered lanai

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• COVERED LANAI
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• CHARMING LANDSCAPING

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-393 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11752% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $231,032 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-81,030
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-119,222
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$355 /mo · $4,266/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$51
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,807

Max offer price $250,618

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-212	-5% $-302	+0% $-393	+5% $-483	+10% $-574
Rent	-10% $-575	-5% $-484	+0% $-393	+5% $-301	+10% $-210
Rate	-1.0pp $-232	-0.5pp $-311	base $-393	+0.5pp $-476	+1.0pp $-560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.15mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	25d	1	0.17mi
1138 Foreshore Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,200	$1.27	25d	1	0.17mi
148 Summerlin Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,850	$1.17	16d	1	0.21mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	13d	1	0.23mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	21d	1	0.30mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	12d	1	0.36mi
432 Summer Grove Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,850	$1.44	25d	1	0.37mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	13d	1	0.40mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	25d	1	0.41mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	25d	1	0.43mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	15d	1	0.46mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	25d	1	0.49mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	16d	1	0.50mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	12d	1	0.52mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	21d	1	0.53mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	13d	1	0.55mi
4854 E Hinson Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2403	$3,000	$1.25	5d	1	0.56mi
1053 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,550	$1.27	25d	1	0.59mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	21d	1	0.65mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	25d	1	0.66mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	25d	1	0.71mi
851 Folklore Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2290	$2,195	$0.96	5d	1	0.73mi
2501 Merseyside Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	3.5	2320	$2,250	$0.97	25d	1	0.78mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	16d	1	0.78mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	25d	1	0.79mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	5d	1	0.79mi
219 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,450	$1.01	25d	1	0.80mi
5161 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,100	$0.84	25d	1	0.80mi
600 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2267	$2,800	$1.24	12d	1	0.81mi
4757 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2451	$2,050	$0.84	25d	1	0.81mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	25d	1	0.82mi
1717 Frogmore Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	25d	1	0.82mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	4d	1	0.84mi
4770 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,000	$0.95	25d	1	0.85mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	25d	1	0.88mi
3377 Wakefield Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	25d	1	0.89mi
833 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1887	$1,950	$1.03	12d	1	0.91mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	25d	1	0.94mi
2986 Salisbury Ave Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2082	$2,495	$1.20	25d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $51 · $612/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-01
   historical $2,700
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $2,700
3. 2026-03-14
   historical $2,700
4. 2026-01-10
   listed $2,700
5. 2025-12-29
   soldstatus $320,000
6. 2025-11-03
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-29
   price $319,999
8. 2025-10-23
   price $322,499
9. 2025-09-24
   price $324,999
10. 2025-09-03
    price $329,999
11. 2025-08-12
    price $349,999
12. 2025-08-06
    price $359,999
13. 2025-08-04
    listed $362,810 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,266 · $355/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,266 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,724
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,266
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,218
• − Management: −$2,218
• − HOA: −$612
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$10,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,502
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Rental Removed $2,700 STELLARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed for Rent $2,700 STELLARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $2,700 STELLARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed for Rent $2,700 STELLARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2025-11-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $319,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $322,499 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $324,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $329,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $349,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $359,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Listed $362,810 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,266 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.