5818 Silver Moonlight Dr · Ellenton, FL 34221

$399,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,605 sqft · Land · 101 Days on market

Built 2026 6,000 sqft lot $120/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty provided; Irrigation equipment installed
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Access Management); Monthly HOA fee $120; HOA includes pool, grounds maintenance and recreational facilities; Community features include deed restrictions, playground and pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Association approval required
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story home; Under construction (projected completion July 3, 2026); Faces west; New construction
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by D.R. Horton (model: Hayden)
• Exterior features: Patio; Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Metered sprinkler; Trees/landscaped lot; Paved road access; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen open to family room; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds and window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,973/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 1193% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $297,311 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-89,750
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-133,054
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,973 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,719/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,298

Max offer price $353,698

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6117 Tremeza Pl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,321	$1.20	3d	1	0.28mi
5520 Flagstone Trl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2248	$3,200	$1.42	23d	1	0.32mi
5514 Night Owl Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1752	$2,650	$1.51	16d	1	0.40mi
5141 Rocky Coast Pl Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,650	$1.17	3d	1	0.50mi
6211 Kenava Loop Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2518	$2,800	$1.11	23d	1	0.54mi
4916 Willow Breeze Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	1997	$2,245	$1.12	2d	1	0.87mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2113	$1,800	$0.85	23d	1	0.91mi
3616 Mossy Limb Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2068	$2,500	$1.21	11d	1	1.04mi
4042 Wayfarer Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,600	$1.42	16d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $399,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $402,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $402,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $402,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $402,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $402,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $404,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $404,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $404,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $399,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $404,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $404,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    price $407,000 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

17. 2026-05-20
    price $407,000
18. 2026-05-14
    price $409,000 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

19. 2026-05-13
    price $409,000
20. 2026-05-01
    price $412,000 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

21. 2026-04-30
    price $412,000
22. 2026-04-23
    price $414,000 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

23. 2026-04-22
    price $418,990 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

24. 2026-04-21
    price $414,000
25. 2026-04-10
    price $417,000 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

26. 2026-04-09
    price $417,000
27. 2026-03-14
    price $419,000 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

28. 2026-03-13
    price $419,000
29. 2026-03-11
    listed $423,990 Active 879-char remark

    Show marketing remark (879 chars)

    This all-concrete block constructed, two-story, two-car garage plan has a large open-concept downstairs which includes a well-appointed kitchen, living room, dining area, secondary bedroom, and full bath. Upstairs, the oversized Bedroom 1 can easily fit a king size bed and includes a large walk-in closet as well as Bathroom 1 with double vanity. Three other bedrooms share a second upstairs bathroom while the loft provides an extra area for work or play. This home comes with refrigerator, built-in dishwasher, electric range, and microwave as well as washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

30. 2026-03-09
    listed $423,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,719 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,312 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 21.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,719
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,854
• − Management: −$2,854
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$10,142
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,434
• After-tax cash flow: $-643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $407,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $407,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $409,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $409,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $412,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $412,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $414,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $418,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $414,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $417,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $417,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $419,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $419,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $423,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-09 Listed $423,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,719 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.