4 Carols Way · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$875,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2000 0.51 ac lot $659/sqft · 14% below area Est $1020k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this recently refreshed 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch is move-in ready. Built in 2000, the light-filled home features a spacious living room with cathedral ceilings and an eat-in-kitchen outfitted with brand-new stainless-steel appliances. The primary suite includes a newly renovated bathroom, complemented by two additional guest bedrooms and a beautifully updated hall bath. The entire interior of the home has been freshly painted, creating a clean and modern feel throughout. Attached is a one car garage. A full basement offers additional storage and the potential to be finished. Situated on a generous half acre lot, the property offers ample room for a pool. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining and the stunning ocean beaches of the Hamptons, this home combines comfort, style, and an ideal location.

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $875k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $875k).
• Recommended offer: $862k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,400/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $245k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($862k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $861,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.39%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,020,240
• List price: $875,000
• Delta: -14.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 West Tiana Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	12mo	$632,000	$506	64
7 Oakwood Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	14mo	$795,000	$612	60
3 Chestnut Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-0%)	16mo	$869,000	$657	54
10 Rolling Hill Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	13mo	$1,095,000	$782	54
53 Shore Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,390 (+5%)	10mo	$774,000	$557	49
27 Norwood Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (+10%)	17mo	$919,999	$627	48
8 Foxboro Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+13%)	4mo	$951,000	$636	43
3 Vine St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+13%)	1mo	$785,000	$523	43
77 Bellows Ter	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,148 (-14%)	21mo	$680,000	$592	41
14 Jones Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	22mo	$1,120,000	$778	40
16 Middle Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,130 (-15%)	11mo	$862,000	$763	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $29,858
• Equity at exit: $130,465

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $408,625
• Equity at exit: $75,654

Cash invested: $245,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax from tax record: −$555 /mo · $6,657/yr
• Insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,974
• Net cashflow: $1,918

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,972

Max offer price $875,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $218,750
• Closing costs: $26,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Bellows Ter Unit B Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1722	$7,000	$4.07	44d	1	0.15mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	44d	1	0.40mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	44d	1	0.42mi
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	11d	1	0.44mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	18d	1	0.55mi
6 Rolling Hill Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1697	$18,000	$10.61	1d	1	0.57mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	44d	1	0.72mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	44d	1	0.75mi
15 Birchwood Ln East Quogue, NY	3.0	3.0	1635	$5,000	$3.06	44d	1	0.76mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	44d	1	0.79mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	25d	1	0.98mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 849-char remark

   Show marketing remark (849 chars)

   Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this recently refreshed 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch is move-in ready. Built in 2000, the light-filled home features a spacious living room with cathedral ceilings and an eat-in-kitchen outfitted with brand-new stainless-steel appliances. The primary suite includes a newly renovated bathroom, complemented by two additional guest bedrooms and a beautifully updated hall bath. The entire interior of the home has been freshly painted, creating a clean and modern feel throughout. Attached is a one car garage. A full basement offers additional storage and the potential to be finished. Situated on a generous half acre lot, the property offers ample room for a pool. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining and the stunning ocean beaches of the Hamptons, this home combines comfort, style, and an ideal location.

2. 2026-04-08
   listed $875,000 Active 849-char remark

   Show marketing remark (849 chars)

   Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this recently refreshed 3 bedroom, 2 bath ranch is move-in ready. Built in 2000, the light-filled home features a spacious living room with cathedral ceilings and an eat-in-kitchen outfitted with brand-new stainless-steel appliances. The primary suite includes a newly renovated bathroom, complemented by two additional guest bedrooms and a beautifully updated hall bath. The entire interior of the home has been freshly painted, creating a clean and modern feel throughout. Attached is a one car garage. A full basement offers additional storage and the potential to be finished. Situated on a generous half acre lot, the property offers ample room for a pool. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining and the stunning ocean beaches of the Hamptons, this home combines comfort, style, and an ideal location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,657 · $555/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,722 · $894/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,065/yr (+$339/mo · 61.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $112,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,014
• − Property taxes: −$6,657
• − Insurance: −$4,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,024
• − Management: −$9,024
• − Depreciation: −$25,455
• Taxable income: $9,251
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,220
• After-tax cash flow: $20,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $6,657 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.