26262 County Rd 21a #64 · Esparto, CA 95627

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 158 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition $56/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your Next Chapter Awaits in Sunny Esparto! Welcome to Country Villa Mobile Estates, where mature trees shade peaceful streets and neighbors become friends. This charming 1,344 sq ft double-wide is ready for your creative vision! Inside, you'll find two generous bedrooms and two full bathrooms, formal living and dining spaces for hosting loved ones, a separate family room that's perfect for movie nights or morning coffee, and a smart, functional layout that simply works. Outside, the possibilities shine. .. your cleared yard is a blank canvas waiting for your dreams. .. imagine a shaded patio with a bubbling fountain, vibrant raised garden beds bursting with tomatoes and herbs, or a simple

Key facts

• Cleared yard
• Raised garden beds
• Shaded patio

Tags

• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• CLEARED YARD
• SHADED PATIO
• BUBBLING FOUNTAIN
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#548 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Esparto Unified (town): math 10% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #454 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Esparto Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 452 students, 78% FRL); Esparto Middle (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #418 of 498 statewide, top 84%, 215 students, 80% FRL); Esparto High (math 30% / reading 15%, grade F, #939 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 273 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 61% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 721 units permitted in Yolo County in 2024 (260 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yolo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.30%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,219
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -67.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26262 County Road 21a #36	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	3mo	$123,000	$80	73
26775 Plainfield St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-14%)	11mo	$340,000	$295	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $56,199
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 64.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $137,035
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95627

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $1,073

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,125	-5% $1,099	+0% $1,073	+5% $1,047	+10% $1,021
Rent	-10% $914	-5% $993	+0% $1,073	+5% $1,152	+10% $1,232
Rate	-1.0pp $1,110	-0.5pp $1,092	base $1,073	+0.5pp $1,053	+1.0pp $1,034

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26340 Capay St Unit BACK LEFT Esparto, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	22d	1	0.39mi
16881 Antelope St Esparto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,975	$2.19	12d	1	0.40mi
16877 Antelope St Esparto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,975	$2.19	12d	1	0.41mi
16816 Antelope St Unit 9 Esparto, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,650	$1.83	21d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $75,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 136 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $12,418
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,980
• After-tax cash flow: $9,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, paint interior walls, and replace old windows. These updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers
• Resale replace dated bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace old windows — new windows would improve energy efficiency and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and appliances — modernizing the kitchen would appeal to buyers ↑
• Resale replace dated bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would appeal to buyers ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace old windows — new windows would improve energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Esparto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,408
• Composite: 18.39/100
• National rank: #8939
• State rank: #454 of 517 in CA

Livability — Esparto

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #18205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Esparto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,935

Population outlook (Yolo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,183 people
• By 2030: 257,662 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 288,050 · +18.9%
• By 2050: 318,202 · +31.4%
• By 2075: 392,736 · +62.2%
• By 2100: 438,150 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yolo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.2) · D 66.3% · R 30.1% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: 0.0pp no change · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.2 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+33.2 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.20%
• Current HPI: 309.7677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B