6634 Pelican Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$344,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,796 sqft · Land · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cali plan is a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 3-car garage. The open kitchen features modern countertops, stainless steel appliances, and flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room, creating an open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom. A covered patio at the back of the home, located just off the family room, comes build standard-ideal for relaxing or hosting guests outdoors.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: D.R. Horton
• HOA & community: Community Solutions association; Annual association fee of $900 covering common areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage with 3 spaces
• Security: Prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (entry on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Quartz counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 12x16; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10; Bedroom (First floor) — 10x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in primary/bath area
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Kitchen/family room combo; Quartz countertops; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Low-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $344,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $371,610.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($193/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $285,858 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,610
• List price: $344,990
• Delta: -7.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $68,813
• Equity at exit: $191,750

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $216,138
• Equity at exit: $316,316

Cash invested: $104,051 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,949
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,838

Max offer price $371,610

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $226	-5% $121	+0% $16	+5% $-513	+10% $-642
Rent	-10% $-210	-5% $-97	+0% $16	+5% $129	+10% $242
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $111	base $16	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-178

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,902
• Closing costs: $11,148
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 N 4th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,750	$2.21	0d	1	1.09mi
119 S 8th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,680	$1.00	25d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $344,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $344,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $344,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $344,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $344,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $344,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,990 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $344,990 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,990 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,990 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,990 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,990 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,990 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,990 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $356,990 Active 660-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,313 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,550/yr (+$463/mo · 727.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,816
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$1,858
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,744
• − Management: −$2,744
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$10,810
• Taxable loss: −$6,333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,520
• After-tax cash flow: $1,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $344,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $349,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $349,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $356,990 HARMLS