15 Shady Ln · Forsyth, GA 30233

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1984 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 3 bedroom/2 bath home with split bedroom plan has open living area with vaulted ceiling. Large covered back porch as well as a covered front porch. Large aluminum shed plus a smaller wooden shed and a walk-under crawl space provide extra storage. Partial fenced back yard. Almost half acre corner lot. Located very near to beautiful High Falls Lake and High Falls State Park. Estate Sale - Fixer-upper - Sold As--Is Cash offer preferred.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Aluminum shed
• Wooden shed

Tags

• COVERED BACK PORCH
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ALUMINUM SHED
• WOODEN SHED
• WALK-UNDER CRAWL SPACE
• PARTIAL FENCED BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition: fixer; Lot size approximately 0.46 acre
• Financial info: Listing is estate-owned; Cash offers only
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad with space for 2 vehicles; Open parking
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; Single story; Corner lot
• Construction: Built in 1984; Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Lake community access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: One-level living; Accessible features (unspecified); Crawl space basement; L-shaped dining area; Bay window
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in hall

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $843 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 2.1% in Forsyth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#24 in GA, #3,557 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Monroe County (rural): math 43% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #22 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Samuel E. Hubbard Elementary School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #336 of 1,228 statewide, top 29%, 732 students, 57% FRL); Mary Persons High School (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #59 of 424 statewide, top 14%, 1,287 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 281 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.17%
• DSCR: 3.01
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $40,716
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $104,521
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30233

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $843

Break-even live

Break-even rent $607

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $888	-5% $866	+0% $843	+5% $820	+10% $798
Rent	-10% $711	-5% $777	+0% $843	+5% $909	+10% $975
Rate	-1.0pp $883	-0.5pp $863	base $843	+0.5pp $822	+1.0pp $801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $80,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $736 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$413/yr (+$34/mo · 127.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $9,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,244
• After-tax cash flow: $7,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe County
• NCES district ID: 1303720
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,955
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4084
• State rank: #22 of 174 in GA

Livability — Forsyth

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #3557

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butts County · 24,730 people
• City population: 18,311
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,730
• Household income: $74,222
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 88.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,503 people
• By 2030: 28,940 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 29,157 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 28,646 · +0.5%
• By 2075: 27,261 · -4.4%
• By 2100: 23,757 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.7) · D 26.5% · R 73.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -31.5pp · 2024: -46.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+37.3 2008: R+31.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.98%
• Current HPI: 316.5436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $80,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $323 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.