65 Woodlawn Rd · Rocky Point, NY 11778

$399,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,006 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1940 3,920 sqft lot $398/sqft · 21% below area Est $505k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 65 Woodlawn Rd, Rocky Point — an exceptional opportunity to own a beautifully up to date, move-in ready home in one of the North Shore’s most desirable coastal communities. Perfectly positioned near Rocky Point’s renowned beaches, waterfront parks, nature preserves, local dining, shopping, and outdoor recreation, this location offers the ideal blend of convenience, lifestyle, and scenic Long Island charm. This thoughtfully updated residence features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite complete with its own private en-suite bathroom. Designed for both comfort and practicality, the home offers an inviting eat-in kitchen, first-floor

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area per public records
• Construction: Advanced framing technique construction; Property condition: Actual
• Exterior features: Advanced framing construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bathroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Rocky Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#717 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Rocky Point Union Free School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #152 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Frank J Carasiti Elementary School (519 students, 32% FRL); Rocky Point Middle School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B, #161 of 729 statewide, top 24%, 638 students, 36% FRL); Rocky Point High School (math 93% / reading 70%, grade A, #484 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 923 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $325k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,011 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,789
• List price: $399,999
• Delta: -20.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
71 Rosewood Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,045 (+4%)	7mo	$485,000	$464	82
5 Uranus Rd	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,002 (-0%)	6mo	$480,000	$479	71
189 Broadway	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (+14%)	1mo	$519,000	$454	69
3 Pearl Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+9%)	8mo	$578,000	$525	66
53 Dryad Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	975 (-3%)	3mo	$445,000	$456	63
21 Yucca Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (+1%)	5mo	$529,000	$519	63
21 Pearl Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,125 (+12%)	7mo	$535,000	$476	62
377 Locust Dr	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (-3%)	8mo	$480,000	$494	58
88 Friendship	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-6%)	9mo	$385,000	$405	58
30 Birch Rd	0.66mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,000 (-1%)	9mo	$485,000	$485	54
8 Pansy Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+13%)	3mo	$480,400	$421	49
32 King Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,089 (+8%)	9mo	$486,000	$446	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-83,872
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-97,761
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11778

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$317 /mo · $3,804/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,267

Max offer price $347,339

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-72	-5% $-185	+0% $-298	+5% $-411	+10% $-525
Rent	-10% $-526	-5% $-412	+0% $-298	+5% $-184	+10% $-70
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-196	base $-298	+0.5pp $-402	+1.0pp $-507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Lincoln Dr Rocky Point, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	45d	1	0.33mi
96 Hallock Landing Rd Rocky Point, NY	3.0	1.0	1254	$3,200	$2.55	45d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,999 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,999 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,999 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,999 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,999 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,999 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $399,999 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,999 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,999 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,999 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $399,999 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $424,999 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $424,999 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $424,999 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,999 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $424,999 Active 1459-char remark
18. 2024-02-09
    historical
19. 2024-01-25
    listed $399,999 Active
20. 2024-01-22
    historical
21. 2023-05-19
    soldstatus $325,000
22. 2023-05-19
    soldstatus $325,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,804 · $317/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,282 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,478/yr (+$123/mo · 38.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$3,804
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,775
• − Management: −$2,775
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$10,714
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,571
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rocky Point Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624840
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $86,256
• Composite: 59.12/100
• National rank: #953
• State rank: #152 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rocky Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #717
• US rank: #13616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rocky Point, NY
• City population: 12,919
• Population (ZIP): 12,919

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.24%
• Current HPI: 340.4944
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+23.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $399,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $424,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-25 Listed $399,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-22 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,804 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.