627 N Dakota Ave · Brownsville, TX 78521

$178,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1987 0.38 ac lot $140/sqft · 11% below area Est $201k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Schedule a showing! Land and space are at the top of your list? This solid masonry home sits on a larger-than-average lot offering the kind of usable yard space that is becoming harder to find. The property is fully fenced with room for gardening, animals, additional structures, RV parking, or simply enjoying wide-open outdoor living. No HOA and plenty of flexibility, this property offers options for homeowners, hobbyists, or investors looking for space and long-term potential. Conveniently located near the airport, SpaceX, LNG facilities, and Boca Chica. Space to grow! Seller offering $8000 toward buyer closing costs, buy-down on the loan, or repairs.

Key facts

• Usable yard space
• Fully fenced
• Rv parking

Tags

• LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE LOT
• USABLE YARD SPACE
• FULLY FENCED
• ROOM FOR GARDENING
• RV PARKING
• WIDE-OPEN OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime D-.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,019 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,555
• List price: $178,000
• Delta: -11.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-14,169
• Equity at exit: $26,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $33,552
• Equity at exit: $15,390

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,587/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $151	+0% $101	+5% $50	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $39	+0% $101	+5% $163	+10% $225
Rate	-1.0pp $190	-0.5pp $146	base $101	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1456 N Minnesota Ave Apt 8 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	44d	1	0.82mi
844 Jenny Cir Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,250	$1.28	22d	1	1.19mi
365 Mango Ln Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	14d	1	1.28mi
7100 Via Del Mar Cir Unit E-10 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1247	$1,500	$1.20	22d	1	1.31mi
7701 Via Del Mar Cir Unit A-1 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1096	$1,300	$1.19	44d	1	1.32mi
4650 Bowie Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,055	$1.10	44d	1	1.32mi
7100 Via Del Mar Cir Unit B-3 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,500	$1.30	22d	1	1.33mi
170 Pearl Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,600	$1.24	22d	1	1.33mi
15 Corine Cir Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,200	$0.90	14d	1	1.33mi
6835 El Lago Dr Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1476	$2,200	$1.49	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $178,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $178,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $178,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $178,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $178,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Active 65 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $178,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $178,000 Active 660-char remark

    Show marketing remark (660 chars)

    Schedule a showing! Land and space are at the top of your list? This solid masonry home sits on a larger-than-average lot offering the kind of usable yard space that is becoming harder to find. The property is fully fenced with room for gardening, animals, additional structures, RV parking, or simply enjoying wide-open outdoor living. No HOA and plenty of flexibility, this property offers options for homeowners, hobbyists, or investors looking for space and long-term potential. Conveniently located near the airport, SpaceX, LNG facilities, and Boca Chica. Space to grow! Seller offering $8000 toward buyer closing costs, buy-down on the loan, or repairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,257 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,671/yr (+$139/mo · 105.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$1,587
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable loss: −$1,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$432
• After-tax cash flow: $1,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $178,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,587 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.