5018 Homecrest Cir · Jacksonville, FL 32244

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1955 7,840 sqft lot Est $236k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Less than 5 minutes from the Navy Base you need to come check out this Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located at 5018 Homecrest Circle in Jacksonville. This property has been beautifully renovated and features hardwood flooring throughout and a thoughtfully updated kitchen, offering a blend of classic character and modern convenience. The home includes a carport for added functionality and everyday ease. Step outside to a spacious, fully fenced backyard, perfect for entertaining, pets, or simply enjoying the outdoors. Conveniently situated near local shopping, dining, and major roadways, this home provides easy access to everything Jacksonville has to offer while still maintaining a comfor

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Easy access
• Carport

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CARPORT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (6.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,690 (6.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.86%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,620
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5056 N Greenway Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-6%)	2mo	$250,000	$185	80
7333 Ortega Hills Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-1%)	3mo	$275,000	$195	78
5114 Greenway Dr N	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	8mo	$195,000	$133	78
4804 Avent Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+3%)	7mo	$216,000	$146	77
7302 Ortega Hills Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+2%)	10mo	$254,000	$174	73
7316 Greenway Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,292 (-10%)	3mo	$164,050	$127	70
7405 Ortega Hills Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+4%)	5mo	$238,000	$161	69
7418 Warner Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	6mo	$247,500	$184	68
7437 Ortega Hills Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+3%)	9mo	$238,950	$163	65
7304 Midway Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+10%)	6mo	$225,000	$143	61
4838 Avent Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+14%)	6mo	$269,500	$165	58
7480 Ortega Hills Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+7%)	10mo	$260,000	$171	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,697
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,275
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32244

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,007 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $891/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,635

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $416	-5% $355	+0% $294	+5% $233	+10% $172
Rent	-10% $136	-5% $215	+0% $294	+5% $373	+10% $453
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $349	base $294	+0.5pp $238	+1.0pp $182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7461 Greenway Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,200	$1.41	24d	1	0.32mi
5639 Bullseye Cir Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,825	$1.16	24d	1	1.11mi
6983 Lafayette Park Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1854	$1,916	$1.03	14d	1	1.21mi
6221 Alfredo Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,710	$1.51	4d	1	1.33mi
8155 Pineverde Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,985	$1.39	17d	1	1.40mi
5726 Ovella Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1579	$1,650	$1.04	24d	1	1.48mi
5900 Townsend Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1177	$1,699	$1.44	3d	12	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-29
   soldstatus $215,000
2. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-20
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-03-18
   listed $215,000 Active
5. 1980-01-25
   soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $891 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$894/yr (+$74/mo · 100.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$891
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$34
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8
• After-tax cash flow: $3,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 63,592
• Household income: $62,204
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2799.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.22%
• Current HPI: 296.5375
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+667.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2026-03-21 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $215,000 realMLS
• 1980-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $891 · +25.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.