2201 Larkin St · San Francisco, CA 94109

$2,780,000

36 bd · 6.0 ba · 6,279 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1913 2,275 sqft lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 6 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to purchase one of San Francisco's classic apartment buildings in the highly desired and historic neighborhood, Russian Hill. Family owned for decades! Soft-story seismic retrofit completed in 2019. All six units have one bedroom, one bathroom, living room, kitchen, and a formal dining room. The property is within walking distance to popular retail and dining options on Polk Street, Union Street, and Chestnut Street. Easy walkable access to BART, Muni, and Van Ness Rapid Transit.

Key facts

• Seismic retrofit
• 2,275 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• SEISMIC RETROFIT
• HISTORIC NEIGHBORHOOD
• WALKING DISTANCE TO RETAIL
• WALKING DISTANCE TO DINING
• EASY WALKABLE ACCESS TO BART
• EASY WALKABLE ACCESS TO MUNI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6 × 6-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $2.78M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12k ($143k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($36k rent vs $2.78M).
• Recommended offer: $2.61M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+15.6%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $36,296/mo this rent would consume 411% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 5272% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $159k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $140k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $778k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$255k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.61M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $2,613,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.40%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.02% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $1,594,958
• Equity at exit: $1,578,991

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $4,621,851
• Equity at exit: $2,728,105

Cash invested: $778,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94109

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Rents YoY: 15.6%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 38.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $36,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,579
• Tax from tax record: −$1,005 /mo · $12,054/yr
• Insurance: −$1,158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,622
• Net cashflow: $11,932

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,192

Max offer price $2,780,000

Occupancy floor 62%

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	6	4	$36,294
Total (6 units)			$36,296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $695,000
• Closing costs: $83,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-23
   price $2,780,000
3. 2026-01-13
   listed $2,980,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,054 · $1,005/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $21,128 · $1,761/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,074/yr (+$756/mo · 75.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥79°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $435,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$155,723
• − Property taxes: −$12,054
• − Insurance: −$13,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$34,844
• − Management: −$34,844
• − Depreciation: −$80,873
• Taxable income: $103,313
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,795
• After-tax cash flow: $118,393/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,553
• Household income: $106,018
• Rent vs Own: 83.2% rent · 16.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5272.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Asian 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 31% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Chinese 10% Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Current HPI: 175.8886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 15.60%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $2,780,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $2,980,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,054 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.