837 Prangley Ave · Lancaster, PA 17603

$189,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,149 sqft · Townhouse public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1920 4,356 sqft lot Est $215k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You’re just in time to enjoy this home and entertain family and friends w/ it’s beautiful backyard space and front porch! Freshly painted exterior, spacious bathroom and ample living space make this a great home for your family

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#71 in PA, #498 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-.
• Lancaster SD (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #500 of 539 in PA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith-Wade-El El Sch (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,094 of 1,518 statewide, top 73%, 447 students, 100% FRL); Wheatland Ms (math 4% / reading 26%, grade F, #471 of 512 statewide, top 93%, 445 students, 93% FRL); Mccaskey Campus (math 50% / reading 34%, grade F, #230 of 437 statewide, top 53%, 2,620 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 72% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 296 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $189k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,618 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,863
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
827 3rd St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,240 (+8%)	2mo	$275,000	$222	80
135 Old Dorwart St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,126 (-2%)	1mo	$140,250	$125	74
635 1st St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,208 (+5%)	2mo	$196,000	$162	72
1230 Elm Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+0%)	0mo	$254,000	$220	72
616 Pearl St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,260 (+10%)	1mo	$202,000	$160	68
738 Marietta Ave	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,061 (-8%)	2mo	$175,000	$165	64
646 1st St	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,256 (+9%)	2mo	$244,900	$195	63
813 Fremont St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,234 (+7%)	1mo	$231,000	$187	62
679 Poplar St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	2mo	$235,000	$218	61
841 Wabank St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-10%)	1mo	$206,000	$198	50
420 Lafayette St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,014 (-12%)	2mo	$142,000	$140	49
448 Fremont St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,290 (+12%)	1mo	$174,950	$136	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-28,218
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,936
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17603

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,719/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,641

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $214	-5% $160	+0% $107	+5% $53	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $37	+0% $107	+5% $177	+10% $247
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $155	base $107	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $8

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
741 Manor St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	45d	1	0.29mi
40 Fairview Ave Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,700	$1.48	15d	1	0.31mi
678 1/2 Columbia Ave Apt 2 Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	15d	1	0.40mi
14 Coral St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.5	1355	$1,525	$1.13	45d	1	0.42mi
529 Manor St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1434	$1,635	$1.14	15d	1	0.51mi
27 Roselle Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	1128	$1,575	$1.40	45d	1	0.55mi
37 E Filbert St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,750	$1.75	45d	1	0.60mi
1415 Spencer Ave Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1181	$3,720	$3.15	15d	1	0.61mi
135 Grandview Ave Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.0	1395	$3,295	$2.36	15d	1	0.63mi
513 Poplar St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.5	1184	$1,695	$1.43	45d	1	0.66mi
324 New Dorwart St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,495	$1.47	15d	1	0.67mi
1127 Wabank St Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,650	$2.17	25d	1	0.70mi
101 Roselawn Ave Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,785	$1.53	15d	1	0.70mi
480 Euclid Ave Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	830	$1,695	$2.04	45d	1	0.76mi
214 W Strawberry St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1175	$1,345	$1.14	23d	1	0.78mi
422 Hillside Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,245	$1.30	45d	1	0.79mi
433 W Walnut St Apt 2 Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,840	$2.04	25d	1	0.80mi
1115 Marietta Ave Unit WH15037 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1298	$1,695	$1.31	45d	1	0.82mi
128 N Mulberry St Unit 1 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	25d	1	0.82mi
1633A Judie Ln Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,698	$2.00	15d	13	0.87mi
118 N Prince St Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1274	$4,703	$3.69	15d	48	0.95mi
404 Beaver St Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,425	$1.39	25d	1	0.98mi
345 1/2 Beaver St Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.0	1382	$2,095	$1.52	45d	1	0.98mi
519 1/2 S Prince St Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	848	$1,550	$1.83	15d	1	1.01mi
549 Howard Ave Lancaster, PA	4.0	1.0	1439	$1,700	$1.18	45d	1	1.05mi
202 N Queen St Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	697	$2,718	$3.90	15d	12	1.09mi
250 Stone Mill Rd Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0	1002	$1,575	$1.57	15d	1	1.09mi
1330 Wabank Rd Lancaster, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1423	$2,062	$1.45	15d	21	1.12mi
425 N Prince St Apt 206 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1138	$1,995	$1.75	45d	1	1.16mi
537 Woodward St Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,650	$1.28	25d	1	1.24mi
850 Highland Ave Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	23d	1	1.27mi
225 E King St Unit 2 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.5	1075	$2,600	$2.42	45d	1	1.31mi
225 E King St Unit 1 Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	957	$1,950	$2.04	15d	1	1.31mi
204 Elmshire Dr Lancaster, PA	3.0	2.5	1364	$1,595	$1.17	46d	1	1.32mi
816 N Prince St Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$2,195	$2.76	15d	7	1.34mi
1013 Willow Street Pike Lancaster, PA	2.0	1.0	1144	$1,499	$1.31	15d	1	1.41mi
231 N Shippen St #224 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,285	$1.98	15d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $189,000 Active
3. 2025-06-02
   historical
4. 2025-05-19
   listed $195,000 Active
5. 2021-08-19
   soldstatus $112,500
6. 2021-07-30
   soldstatus $112,500 Closed 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   You’re just in time to enjoy this home and entertain family and friends w/ it’s beautiful backyard space and front porch! Freshly painted exterior, spacious bathroom and ample living space make this a great home for your family

7. 2021-07-12
   status Pending 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   You’re just in time to enjoy this home and entertain family and friends w/ it’s beautiful backyard space and front porch! Freshly painted exterior, spacious bathroom and ample living space make this a great home for your family

8. 2021-07-06
   listed $119,900 Active 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   You’re just in time to enjoy this home and entertain family and friends w/ it’s beautiful backyard space and front porch! Freshly painted exterior, spacious bathroom and ample living space make this a great home for your family

9. 2006-07-27
   soldstatus $72,000
10. 2006-07-24
    soldstatus $72,000
11. 2006-06-16
    historical
12. 2006-05-16
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,719 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,852 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: +$134/yr (+$11/mo · 4.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,719
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$1,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$443
• After-tax cash flow: $1,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster SD
• NCES district ID: 4213140
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $38,500
• Composite: 15.52/100
• National rank: #9301
• State rank: #500 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #71
• US rank: #498

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 176,170
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 67,571
• Household income: $77,084
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2557.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -508.78%
• Current HPI: 289.3324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+170.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $189,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-19 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 2021-07-30 Sold (MLS) $112,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-06 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-24 Sold (MLS) $72,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-06-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-05-16 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,719 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.