The Blue Jay II Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$214,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 600 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• BACKYARD OUTDOOR LIVING

🏗️ New construction. The $214,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $262,150.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-337 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 655 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 600 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $186,726 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 600 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.50%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,150
• List price: $214,990
• Delta: -17.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14278 Moonflower Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+3%)	0mo	$263,590	$177	88
14282 Moonflower Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-2%)	2mo	$239,990	$170	86
14362 Chilean Way	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	1mo	$219,990	$152	84
14317 Moonflower Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-2%)	1mo	$249,990	$177	84
21621 Jasmine Star Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	4mo	$234,990	$162	83
14298 Moonflower Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-2%)	4mo	$274,590	$194	83
14408 Oceanblue Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+3%)	4mo	$248,990	$167	82
14270 Moonflower Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+9%)	2mo	$253,990	$161	77
21613 Jasmine Star Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+8%)	4mo	$244,990	$156	69
14478 Trumpet Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	5mo	$274,990	$172	68
14274 Moonflower Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+15%)	1mo	$264,990	$159	62
14396 Oceanblue Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+15%)	2mo	$257,990	$155	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-63,884
• Equity at exit: $39,087

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-83,114
• Equity at exit: $22,666

Cash invested: $73,402 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 86 active · 35 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.9 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $239,990 ($152/sqft)
• Median days on market: 92 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,375
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$328 /mo · $3,932/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-337

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,293

Max offer price $213,454

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-155	-5% $-246	+0% $-337	+5% $-427	+10% $-518
Rent	-10% $-484	-5% $-410	+0% $-337	+5% $-263	+10% $-189
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-270	base $-337	+0.5pp $-404	+1.0pp $-474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,537
• Closing costs: $7,864
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	73d	1	0.58mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	0d	59	0.76mi
15171 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,650	$1.07	15d	1	0.97mi
13840 Green Heron Way Splendora, TX	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,695	$1.07	16d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $214,990 Active 600 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $214,990 Active 598 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $214,990 Active 597 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $214,990 Active 596 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $214,990 Active 595 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $214,990 Active 592 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $214,990 Active 591 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $214,990 Active 590 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $214,990 Active 589 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $214,990 Active 587 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $214,990 Active 585 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $214,990 Active 584 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $214,990 Active 583 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $214,990 Active 582 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $214,990 Active 581 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $214,990 Active 579 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $214,990 Active 578 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $214,990 Active 577 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $214,990 Active 576 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $214,990 Active 575 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $214,990 Active 574 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $214,990 Active 573 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $214,990 Active 572 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $214,990 Active 571 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $214,990 Active 570 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $214,990 Active 568 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $214,990 Active 567 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $214,990 Active 566 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $214,990 Active 565 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $214,990 Active 564 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $214,990 Active 563 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $209,990 Active 562 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $209,990 Active 561 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $209,990 Active 560 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $209,990 Active 559 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $209,990 Active 558 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $209,990 Active 557 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $209,990 Active 555 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $209,990 Active 552 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $209,990 Active 549 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $209,990 Active 548 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $209,990 Active 547 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $209,990 Active 546 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $209,990 Active 544 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $209,990 Active 543 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $209,990 Active 540 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,990 Active 539 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,990 Active 538 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,990 Active 535 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,990 Active 534 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,684
• − Property taxes: −$3,932
• − Insurance: −$1,311
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − Depreciation: −$7,626
• Taxable loss: −$8,732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,096
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $209,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $219,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $219,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-16 Listed $241,990 Zillow