The Blue Jay II Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$209,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 549 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• COVERED REAR PATIO
• BACKYARD OUTDOOR LIVING

🏗️ New construction. The $209,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $259,569.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 549 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $184,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 549 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.71%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,569
• List price: $209,990
• Delta: -19.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14282 Moonflower Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-2%)	0mo	$239,990	$170	87
21621 Jasmine Star Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	2mo	$234,990	$162	84
14298 Moonflower Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-2%)	3mo	$274,590	$194	84
14408 Oceanblue Way	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,489 (+3%)	2mo	$248,990	$167	83
14380 Oceanblue Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+4%)	4mo	$248,990	$166	83
14270 Moonflower Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+9%)	1mo	$253,990	$161	78
14253 Moonflower Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+9%)	4mo	$249,990	$159	76
14376 Oceanblue Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+9%)	4mo	$252,990	$161	75
21613 Jasmine Star Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,566 (+8%)	2mo	$244,990	$156	70
14478 Trumpet Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	3mo	$274,990	$172	69
14368 Oceanblue Way	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+15%)	3mo	$262,990	$158	61
14396 Oceanblue Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+15%)	1mo	$257,990	$155	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-56,325
• Equity at exit: $38,703

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-67,331
• Equity at exit: $22,443

Cash invested: $72,679 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,894/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $227,094

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-135	+0% $-224	+5% $-314	+10% $-404
Rent	-10% $-381	-5% $-303	+0% $-224	+5% $-146	+10% $-67
Rate	-1.0pp $-94	-0.5pp $-158	base $-224	+0.5pp $-292	+1.0pp $-360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,892
• Closing costs: $7,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	25d	1	0.58mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	6d	57	0.74mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,990 Active 549 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,990 Active 548 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,990 Active 547 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,990 Active 546 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,990 Active 544 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,990 Active 543 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,990 Active 540 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,990 Active 539 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,990 Active 538 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,990 Active 535 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,990 Active 534 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,990 Active 533 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,990 Active 532 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,990 Active 531 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $209,990 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

16. 2026-05-04
    price $224,990 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

17. 2026-01-08
    price $219,990 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

18. 2025-07-22
    price $229,990 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

19. 2025-05-07
    price $219,990 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

20. 2025-01-13
    price $229,990 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

21. 2024-12-16
    listed $241,990 Active 503-char remark

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    The efficient Blue Jay II plan offers three bedrooms, two full baths, and a large open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room. The owner's suite is located at the rear of the home for maximum privacy, with an ensuite bathroom and many opportunities to customize it based on your individual preferences. Add a fireplace in the family room for a cozy space to entertain and unwind. A covered rear patio completes the Blue Jay II and creates a backyard perfect for all of your outdoor living space needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,540
• − Property taxes: −$3,894
• − Insurance: −$1,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$7,551
• Taxable loss: −$7,258
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,742
• After-tax cash flow: $-951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves appearance and functionality
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $209,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $224,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $219,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $219,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $229,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-16 Listed $241,990 Zillow