104 Layfield Ln · New Fairview, TX 76078

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2006 1.05 ac lot Est $232k · 5% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully Renovated & move in ready 3 bed 2 bath on 1 Acre. New upgrades & updates in 2021 include: Interior Exterior Paint, Roof June-2021, Granite Countertops, flooring, Stainless Steel appliances, luxurious Stainmaster carpet, lighting. Nice kitchen with lots of countertops & cabinet space. Relax & Enjoy the backyard on nice covered deck. * * * * Home is retrofitted an will go FHA * * * *

Key facts

• Large breakfast bar
• Open-concept layout
• Covered back porch

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WHITE SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY
• GRANITE-LOOK COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE BREAKFAST BAR
• COVERED BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is about 1.05 acres (will not subdivide)
• Financial info: Listing terms allow cash or conventional financing; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; No garage or covered/carport spaces
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Co-op water; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Attached property; Built in 2006; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Interior lot; Easements for utilities; Horse permitted

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: One-level layout; 5 total rooms; Living area includes one living room and one dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($804/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Decatur ISD (town): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #323 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carson El (math 37% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 548 students, 44% FRL); Mccarroll Middle (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 821 students, 47% FRL); Decatur H S (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,140 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 264 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,906 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,256
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
269 Latham Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	9mo	$159,900	$119	67
156 Aydelotte Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+12%)	7mo	$260,000	$191	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $124,062
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.88×
• Total profit: $361,935
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,254/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,814

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $129	+0% $67	+5% $5	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-8	+0% $67	+5% $142	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $178	-0.5pp $123	base $67	+0.5pp $10	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $220,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active Contingent 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active Contingent 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active Contingent 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active Contingent 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active Contingent 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $220,000 Active Contingent 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active Contingent 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $220,000 Active Contingent 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    status $220,000 Active Contingent 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 14 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active Option Contract 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    listed $220,000 Active
14. 2021-10-07
    soldstatus
15. 2021-09-30
    soldstatus Sold 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Beautifully Renovated & move in ready 3 bed 2 bath on 1 Acre. New upgrades & updates in 2021 include: Interior Exterior Paint, Roof June-2021, Granite Countertops, flooring, Stainless Steel appliances, luxurious Stainmaster carpet, lighting. Nice kitchen with lots of countertops & cabinet space. Relax & Enjoy the backyard on nice covered deck. * * * * Home is retrofitted an will go FHA * * * *

16. 2021-07-28
    status Pending 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Beautifully Renovated & move in ready 3 bed 2 bath on 1 Acre. New upgrades & updates in 2021 include: Interior Exterior Paint, Roof June-2021, Granite Countertops, flooring, Stainless Steel appliances, luxurious Stainmaster carpet, lighting. Nice kitchen with lots of countertops & cabinet space. Relax & Enjoy the backyard on nice covered deck. * * * * Home is retrofitted an will go FHA * * * *

17. 2021-07-13
    listed $175,000 Active 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Beautifully Renovated & move in ready 3 bed 2 bath on 1 Acre. New upgrades & updates in 2021 include: Interior Exterior Paint, Roof June-2021, Granite Countertops, flooring, Stainless Steel appliances, luxurious Stainmaster carpet, lighting. Nice kitchen with lots of countertops & cabinet space. Relax & Enjoy the backyard on nice covered deck. * * * * Home is retrofitted an will go FHA * * * *

18. 2019-12-09
    soldstatus Sold 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Great investment property! Want a home in the country with a back lot next to land? This is it. Large Master Suite at one end, two bedrooms and full bath at the other. Open concept with plenty of work space in the kitchen. Back area is fenced. Ready to be refurbished. Appliances stay. Come in and make this house your home!

19. 2019-11-11
    status Pending 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Great investment property! Want a home in the country with a back lot next to land? This is it. Large Master Suite at one end, two bedrooms and full bath at the other. Open concept with plenty of work space in the kitchen. Back area is fenced. Ready to be refurbished. Appliances stay. Come in and make this house your home!

20. 2019-11-06
    listed $50,000 Active 324-char remark

    Show marketing remark (324 chars)

    Great investment property! Want a home in the country with a back lot next to land? This is it. Large Master Suite at one end, two bedrooms and full bath at the other. Open concept with plenty of work space in the kitchen. Back area is fenced. Ready to be refurbished. Appliances stay. Come in and make this house your home!

21. 2017-12-27
    soldstatus
22. 2014-06-19
    soldstatus
23. 2011-04-21
    soldstatus Closed
24. 2011-02-22
    status Pending
25. 2011-02-07
    listed $21,000 Active
26. 2007-01-04
    soldstatus
27. 2002-06-13
    soldstatus
28. 2002-01-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,254 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,772/yr (+$148/mo · 78.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,254
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$2,935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$704
• After-tax cash flow: $1,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816500
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,504
• Composite: 36.33/100
• National rank: #4691
• State rank: #323 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Fairview, TX
• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+947.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2021-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-09-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-07-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-07-13 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2019-12-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-11-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-11-06 Listed $50,000 NTREIS
• 2017-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-04-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2011-02-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2011-02-07 Listed $21,000 NTREIS
• 2007-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,254 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.