906 Independence Trl · Josephine, TX 75173

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,827 sqft · Land · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 $151/sqft · 293% above area ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

Key facts

• Private primary bath
• Extended front porch
• Laundry room

Tags

• EXTENDED FRONT PORCH
• FULL BATH
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• BACK PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($550/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,348 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,000
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: 292.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $152,562
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.80×
• Total profit: $446,720
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $995/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,075

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $124	+0% $46	+5% $-32	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-38	+0% $46	+5% $130	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $116	base $46	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$1,899	$1.20	12d	1	0.62mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,925	$1.17	8d	1	0.87mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$1,949	$1.18	17d	1	0.87mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	45d	1	0.90mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,900	$1.36	26d	1	1.03mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$2,100	$1.16	0d	1	1.05mi
464 N Greenville St Farmersville, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,000	$1.50	0d	1	1.10mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,849	$1.17	45d	1	1.13mi
315 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,300	$1.04	9d	1	1.14mi
305 Silo Cir Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,100	$1.01	26d	1	1.22mi
311 Milo Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2074	$2,200	$1.06	8d	1	1.23mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,190	$1.40	4d	1	1.24mi
6135 FM 547 Farmersville, TX	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,295	$1.30	26d	1	1.24mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1757	$2,500	$1.42	7d	1	1.25mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	1.26mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	1843	$2,100	$1.14	1d	1	1.26mi
717 Cottonwood WAY Josephine, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$2,125	$1.03	0d	1	1.40mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	14d	1	1.41mi
1307 Community Way Royse City, TX	4.0	2.0	2104	$2,100	$1.00	45d	1	1.42mi
813 Cottonwood Way Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2347	$2,350	$1.00	14d	1	1.43mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,050	$1.27	45d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $275,000 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

2. 2026-04-09
   price $282,990 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

3. 2026-03-06
   listed $280,990 Active 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   As you enter the home from the extended front porch, you're welcomed into the foyer, where two bedrooms sit at the front of the home and share a full bath. Continuing down the hall, you'll find an additional bedroom and a conveniently located laundry room nearby. The heart of the home opens into the kitchen, seamlessly connected to the family room and dining area, creating an inviting space for gathering. A back patio extends off the dining area, offering a spot to enjoy the outdoors. Just off the dining area, the primary bedroom features a spacious walk-in closet and a private primary bath.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,037/yr (+$336/mo · 405.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$995
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,048
• − Management: −$2,048
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,025
• After-tax cash flow: $1,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Josephine, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $275,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $282,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Listed $280,990 Zillow

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $995 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.