11002 Clear Fork Dr · Atascocita, TX 77396

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,062 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1977 7,348 sqft lot $155/sqft · 11% below area Est $185k · 11% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Per seller House has never flooded that the seller is aware of and aprox age of AC is 2010 and roof is 2009

Key facts

• 7,348 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,144
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -10.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11002 Clear Fork Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,062 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$155	99
11123 Drakeland Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,118 (+5%)	6mo	$178,000	$159	76
11019 Drakeland Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+7%)	6mo	$158,000	$139	74
10811 Kentington Oak Dr	0.33mi	3/1.5	980 (-8%)	7mo	$150,000	$153	66
11115 Maple Rock Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,164 (+10%)	11mo	$204,500	$176	62
10822 Kentington Oak Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	980 (-8%)	14mo	$115,000	$117	60
11018 Almond Grv	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,186 (+12%)	16mo	$157,500	$133	58
10715 Ambergate Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,175 (+11%)	15mo	$190,000	$162	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-24,513
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-31,883
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77396

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,360/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,679

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10810 Kentington Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	19d	1	0.30mi
14809 Ralston Rd Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	931	$1,559	$1.67	44d	1	0.35mi
14809 Ralston Rd Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,074	$2.18	21d	16	0.35mi
11532 Moonlight Ridge Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,733	$1.30	44d	1	0.49mi
11375 Sandstone Canyon Dr Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$2,092	$1.86	11d	1	0.51mi
10379 N Sam Houston Pkwy E Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,495	$1.32	44d	1	0.53mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,193	$2.33	13d	15	0.54mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,193	$2.33	4d	14	0.54mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 424 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,513	$1.37	5d	1	0.57mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3148 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,707	$1.28	3d	1	0.57mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 2112 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,505	$1.36	3d	1	0.57mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 14864 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,347	$1.22	44d	1	0.57mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3174 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,750	$1.31	11d	1	0.57mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 14844 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,537	$1.39	10d	1	0.57mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 14840 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,750	$1.31	44d	1	0.57mi
14807 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 2047 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,548	$1.40	11d	1	0.58mi
10373 N Sam Houston Pkwy E Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,968	$1.79	2d	27	0.65mi
14935 Moonlight Mist Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$2,200	$2.27	3d	21	0.89mi
12211 Summer Creek Trace Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$2,750	$2.56	17d	1	0.98mi
14700 Woodson Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$1,921	$1.90	1d	15	1.15mi
14706 Woodson Park Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,838	$1.36	44d	1	1.17mi
14706 Woodson Park Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,838	$1.36	22d	1	1.17mi
14633 Woodson Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	948	$1,939	$2.05	1d	17	1.22mi
15729 Ballater Ridge Ln Atascocita, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,995	$1.78	44d	1	1.25mi
9702 N Sam Houston Pkwy E Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1049	$1,594	$1.52	2d	41	1.30mi
15863 Kinlough Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1326	$2,518	$1.90	3d	16	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Per seller House has never flooded that the seller is aware of and aprox age of AC is 2010 and roof is 2009

2. 2026-04-23
   price $165,000 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Per seller House has never flooded that the seller is aware of and aprox age of AC is 2010 and roof is 2009

3. 2026-03-27
   price $170,000 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Per seller House has never flooded that the seller is aware of and aprox age of AC is 2010 and roof is 2009

4. 2026-02-18
   listed $175,000 Active 107-char remark

   Show marketing remark (107 chars)

   Per seller House has never flooded that the seller is aware of and aprox age of AC is 2010 and roof is 2009

5. 2008-12-05
   soldstatus 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath with small kitchen, dining and living area. Master has 1/2 bath only. Located on fenced corner lot. Easy access to Beltway 8 and Hwy 59. Being sold as is.

6. 2008-11-10
   historical 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath with small kitchen, dining and living area. Master has 1/2 bath only. Located on fenced corner lot. Easy access to Beltway 8 and Hwy 59. Being sold as is.

7. 2008-11-06
   listed $38,900 193-char remark

   Show marketing remark (193 chars)

   INVESTOR SPECIAL! 3 bedroom 1 1/2 bath with small kitchen, dining and living area. Master has 1/2 bath only. Located on fenced corner lot. Easy access to Beltway 8 and Hwy 59. Being sold as is.

8. 2007-05-09
   historical
9. 2007-01-14
   listed $75,000
10. 2002-07-18
    soldstatus
11. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,360 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,360 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$4,360
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$279
• After-tax cash flow: $1,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 61,735
• Household income: $78,169
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 29% Two or more races 19% White 19% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.66%
• Current HPI: 243.7012
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2008-12-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2008-11-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-11-06 Listed $38,900 HARMLS
• 2007-05-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-01-14 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2002-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,360 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.