4024 Mchenry Ave #119 · Modesto, CA 95356

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 2018 Good condition Est $86k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move right in and start enjoying the lifestyle you deserve! This beautifully maintained 2018 Creekside Manor home is truly turnkey, offering 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and approximately 800 sq ft of modern, low-maintenance living. Located in a quiet, all-age community, residents enjoy access to the community pool and clubhouse at no additional cost. With space rent on the lower end for the area, this home delivers exceptional affordability without sacrificing comfort. Conveniently located near schools, shopping centers, restaurants, and commuter routes, this is an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, down-sizers, or anyone looking for a move-in-ready home in a welcoming community.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Move in ready

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Modesto Mobile Home Park, space 119; Directions available to property
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount field present)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; Built in 2018
• Construction: Composition roof; Make: Creekside Manor
• Exterior features: Close to clubhouse; Fenced

Interior

• Kitchen: No additional built-in kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room ceiling; Kitchen open to family/dining area
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area; 220V outlet in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.27%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4024 Mchenry Ave #124	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	806 (+1%)	3mo	$125,000	$155	86
4125 Mchenry Ave #57	0.21mi	2/1.0	800 (0%)	5mo	$102,000	$128	82
4125 Mchenry Ave #63	0.28mi	2/2.0	812 (+2%)	4mo	$87,500	$108	82
4024 Mchenry Ave #141	0.00mi	3/1.5 (+1)	860 (+8%)	2mo	$75,900	$88	79
4024 Mchenry Ave #143	0.11mi	2/1.0	826 (+3%)	14mo	$59,900	$73	74
78 Clipper Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	840 (+5%)	16mo	$80,900	$96	71
4024 Mchenry #95	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	886 (+11%)	6mo	$120,000	$135	67
4024 Mchenry Ave #29	0.11mi	2/2.0	893 (+12%)	11mo	$120,000	$134	66
4125 Mchenry Ave #54	0.21mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	6mo	$34,000	$47	64
4125 Mchenry Ave #13	0.28mi	2/1.0	720 (-10%)	6mo	$35,000	$49	61
4024 Mchenry Ave #134	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	860 (+8%)	21mo	$128,000	$149	60
15 Schooner Ln	0.24mi	2/1.0	756 (-6%)	20mo	$30,000	$40	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $18,273
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $50,135
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95356

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $763	-5% $721	+0% $680	+5% $638	+10% $597
Rent	-10% $529	-5% $604	+0% $680	+5% $755	+10% $831
Rate	-1.0pp $740	-0.5pp $710	base $680	+0.5pp $649	+1.0pp $617

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Warren Way Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,825	$2.52	14d	4	0.43mi
3601 Bridgeford Ln Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,495	$2.27	14d	1	0.48mi
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	22d	1	0.92mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	14d	1	0.99mi
3701 Colonial Dr #154 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	978	$1,950	$1.99	14d	1	1.03mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,071	$2.53	14d	10	1.04mi
3445 Colonial Dr Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$2,295	$2.50	14d	10	1.12mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$1,645	$2.33	14d	1	1.14mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	22d	1	1.14mi
2700 Macdougal St #12 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$1,625	$1.89	22d	1	1.20mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,095	$2.05	14d	2	1.32mi
3000 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	14d	1	1.37mi
200 Sheila Ct Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,725	$2.05	14d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 695-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $120,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,921
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,834
• − Management: −$1,834
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $6,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,594
• After-tax cash flow: $6,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2018 Creekside Manor home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a good condition score. It offers a good return on investment with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and overall appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,233
• Household income: $96,886
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Pacific Islander 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.73%
• Current HPI: 270.6957
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B