19511 Blanco Dr · Lago Vista, TX 78645

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2001 1.03 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper with a great view. This home can be brought back to life and become a home to be enjoyed for years to come. This home has great potential and is sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Natural light
• Panoramic views
• Covered front patio

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PATIO
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; 5 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Sewer connected (septic tank); Water connected (shared well)
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Board and batten siding; Metal roof; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Rear covered porch; Patio; Sloped up lot with few trees; Has view; Faces northeast

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Quartz counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; In-law floorplan; Main level primary bedroom; Double vanity; Quartz counters; Walk-in closet(s); Vinyl windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-896/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.2% in Lago Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#275 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1101 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,929 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,180
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-45,773
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1101
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,461/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,044

Max offer price $235,807

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-4	+0% $-75	+5% $-145	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-152	+0% $-75	+5% $2	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-11	base $-75	+0.5pp $-139	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20103 Park Strip St Unit A Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,795	$1.18	6d	1	0.55mi
20105 Park Strip St Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	45d	1	0.57mi
20107 Park Strip St Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,900	$1.24	19d	1	0.59mi
20111 Travis Dr Unit A Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,745	$1.75	19d	1	0.61mi
20111 Travis Dr Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,745	$1.62	6d	1	0.61mi
5509 Thunderbird St Apt B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	19d	1	1.03mi
20507 Bonanza Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.5	1451	$1,895	$1.31	45d	1	1.03mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 4 Leander, TX	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,300	$1.22	22d	1	1.06mi
20600 Bonanza Unit 3 Leander, TX	4.0	1.5	1143	$1,450	$1.27	4d	1	1.06mi
5211 Thunderbird St Unit B Lago Vista, TX	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,550	$1.03	19d	1	1.15mi
5205 Thunderbird Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,100	$1.38	25d	1	1.18mi
19903 Lincoln Cv Lago Vista, TX	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,250	$1.24	19d	1	1.32mi
5909 Lago Vista Way Unit B Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	918	$1,645	$1.79	19d	1	1.33mi
5909 Lago Vista Way Unit D Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	918	$1,545	$1.68	19d	1	1.33mi
5102 Moss Pt Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1801	$2,250	$1.25	25d	1	1.40mi
5914 Lago Vista Way Unit C23 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1037	$1,295	$1.25	25d	1	1.43mi
20703 Ridgeview Rd Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1813	$2,200	$1.21	6d	1	1.45mi
5916 Lago Vista Way Unit B-10 UP Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,295	$1.17	45d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    listed $249,000 Active 706-char remark
16. 2018-01-19
    soldstatus Sold 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Fixer upper with a great view. This home can be brought back to life and become a home to be enjoyed for years to come. This home has great potential and is sold AS-IS.

17. 2018-01-19
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Fixer upper with a great view. This home can be brought back to life and become a home to be enjoyed for years to come. This home has great potential and is sold AS-IS.

18. 2018-01-08
    status Pending - Taking Backups 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Fixer upper with a great view. This home can be brought back to life and become a home to be enjoyed for years to come. This home has great potential and is sold AS-IS.

19. 2018-01-06
    listed $69,700 Active 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Fixer upper with a great view. This home can be brought back to life and become a home to be enjoyed for years to come. This home has great potential and is sold AS-IS.

20. 2017-12-31
    historical $69,700 168-char remark

    Show marketing remark (168 chars)

    Fixer upper with a great view. This home can be brought back to life and become a home to be enjoyed for years to come. This home has great potential and is sold AS-IS.

21. 2003-10-13
    soldstatus
22. 2003-09-29
    soldstatus
23. 2003-09-15
    historical
24. 2003-03-30
    listed $54,000
25. 2003-02-14
    soldstatus
26. 2003-01-13
    historical
27. 2002-12-01
    listed $39,900
28. 2002-11-30
    historical
29. 2002-09-06
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,461 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,557 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,096/yr (+$175/mo · 85.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,461
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$5,249
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,260
• After-tax cash flow: $364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lago Vista

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #6393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 15,256
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+524.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $249,000 Unlock MLS
• 2018-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-19 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2018-01-08 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2018-01-06 Listed $69,700 Unlock MLS
• 2017-12-31 Coming Soon $69,700 Unlock MLS
• 2003-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-29 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2003-09-15 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2003-03-30 Listed $54,000 Unlock MLS
• 2003-02-14 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2003-01-13 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2002-12-01 Listed $39,900 Unlock MLS
• 2002-11-30 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2002-09-06 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,461 · -18.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.