5829 NW 11th Ave · Bell, FL 32619

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 155 Days on market

Built 2021 1.04 ac lot $218/sqft · 44% above area Est $173k · 44% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful home in Gilchrist County is immaculate and MOVE-IN READY!! NO HOA!!! A split floor plan with a master suite, this nearly new home has 3 bedrooms + 2 Baths + a Walk-In Closet + a Jack & Jill Guest Bath and comes partially furnished! Cleared, landscaped with a fabulous circular gravel drive! Newer appliances and 2 Refrigerators, PLUS Washer and Dryer! Screened-In Front Porch AND a Screened-In Back Porch for enjoying your coffee and listening to the birds, peace and quiet!! Over an Acre of Land that is completely fenced to call your own!! Low monthly Electric Bills! Close to all the springs in the area, the Suwannee River and just a short drive into Trenton or Gainesville/Ocala! Floor Plan in photos

Key facts

• Master suite
• Split floor plan
• Walk in closet

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• MASTER SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• JACK AND JILL GUEST BATH
• CIRCULAR GRAVEL DRIVE
• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $109 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.9% in Bell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#767 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Gilchrist (rural): math 66% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #9 of 73 in FL (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bell Elementary School (math 71% / reading 60%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 661 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Gilchrist County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gilchrist County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $249k implies a 1456% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,664 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.88%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,299
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: 43.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5807 NW 12th Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+8%)	6mo	$165,000	$134	76
1400 NW 62nd Pl	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+5%)	2mo	$183,000	$153	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $142,039
• Equity at exit: $223,878

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $412,440
• Equity at exit: $482,333

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32619

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $701/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,858

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $250	-5% $180	+0% $109	+5% $39	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $31	+0% $109	+5% $188	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $173	base $109	+0.5pp $45	+1.0pp $-21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-01-17
    listed $249,000 Active 732-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    This beautiful home in Gilchrist County is immaculate and MOVE-IN READY!! NO HOA!!! A split floor plan with a master suite, this nearly new home has 3 bedrooms + 2 Baths + a Walk-In Closet + a Jack & Jill Guest Bath and comes partially furnished! Cleared, landscaped with a fabulous circular gravel drive! Newer appliances and 2 Refrigerators, PLUS Washer and Dryer! Screened-In Front Porch AND a Screened-In Back Porch for enjoying your coffee and listening to the birds, peace and quiet!! Over an Acre of Land that is completely fenced to call your own!! Low monthly Electric Bills! Close to all the springs in the area, the Suwannee River and just a short drive into Trenton or Gainesville/Ocala! Floor Plan in photos

18. 2026-01-17
    listed $249,000 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    This beautiful home in Gilchrist County is immaculate and MOVE-IN READY!! NO HOA!!! A split floor plan with a master suite, this nearly new home has 3 bedrooms + 2 Baths + a Walk-In Closet + a Jack & Jill Guest Bath and comes partially furnished! Cleared, landscaped with a fabulous circular gravel drive! Newer appliances and 2 Refrigerators, PLUS Washer and Dryer! Screened-In Front Porch AND a Screened-In Back Porch for enjoying your coffee and listening to the birds, peace and quiet!! Over an Acre of Land that is completely fenced to call your own!! Low monthly Electric Bills! Close to all the springs in the area, the Suwannee River and just a short drive into Trenton or Gainesville/Ocala! Floor Plan in photos

19. 2025-04-04
    price $233,500
20. 2024-07-15
    listed $235,000 Active
21. 2024-07-03
    historical
22. 2024-02-26
    price $239,900
23. 2024-02-26
    price $239,900
24. 2024-02-26
    price $239,900
25. 2024-01-10
    listed $249,900 Active
26. 2024-01-10
    listed $249,900 Active
27. 2024-01-06
    listed $249,900 Active
28. 2005-04-15
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $701 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,366/yr (+$114/mo · 194.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,960
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$701
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,917
• − Management: −$1,917
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$723
• After-tax cash flow: $2,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilchrist
• NCES district ID: 1200630
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,610
• Composite: 53.01/100
• National rank: #1522
• State rank: #9 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bell

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #767
• US rank: #17229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,227
• Population (ZIP): 5,227

Population outlook (Gilchrist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,730 people
• By 2030: 17,722 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 17,393 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 16,597 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 14,300 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,498 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilchrist

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.98%
• Current HPI: 404.4164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1456.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $249,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $233,500 DGLMLS
• 2024-07-15 Listed $235,000 DGLMLS
• 2024-07-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-26 Price Changed $239,900 NFMLS
• 2024-02-26 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-26 Price Changed $239,900 DGLMLS
• 2024-01-10 Listed $249,900 NFMLS
• 2024-01-10 Listed $249,900 DGLMLS
• 2024-01-06 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $701 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.