621 Spaulding St · Justin, TX 76247

$287,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,489 sqft lot 2-car garage $198/sqft · 7% below area Est $310k · 7% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in- ready, 2023 build in sought-after Liberty Trails, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms home offers 1,451 sqft of comfortable living. Open family room features a cozy gas fireplace with gas logs. Spacious eat-in kitchen with dishwasher & disposal. Decorative lighting throughout. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered patio and huge yard. 2-car attached garage with opener & driveway. Carpet & ceramic tile flooring. Sprinkler system. Located in Northwest ISD. Life in Liberty Trails means access to top notch amenities like a community pool, playground, pond, dog park, and amenity center.

Key facts

• 5,489 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.6% in Justin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#443 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W R Hatfield El (math 48% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 613 students, 29% FRL); Gene Pike Middle (math 47% / reading 46%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,150 students, 29% FRL); Northwest H S (math 55% / reading 64%, grade C+, #275 of 1,632 statewide, top 19%, 2,264 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 2042 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14322% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $211,301 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,905
• List price: $287,000
• Delta: -7.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16629 Milwaukee St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+0%)	0mo	$275,000	$189	86
16561 Madrone Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-3%)	2mo	$333,240	$236	80
16549 Hudson Prairie Way	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-3%)	3mo	$326,760	$231	75
16628 Milwaukee St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+7%)	3mo	$269,000	$173	73
1141 Loomis Trl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+0%)	2mo	$305,000	$209	72
16573 Port Arthur Pl	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,405 (-3%)	2mo	$334,335	$238	65
16536 Hudson Prairie Way	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,581 (+9%)	3mo	$331,990	$210	64
16616 Laguna Vista St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,581 (+9%)	3mo	$343,920	$218	61
16625 Port Arthur Pl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-9%)	3mo	$285,990	$216	58
16569 Port Arthur Pl	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,614 (+11%)	0mo	$329,990	$204	53
16745 Laguna Vista St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,659 (+14%)	2mo	$298,336	$180	47
16669 Port Arthur Pl	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,659 (+14%)	2mo	$297,990	$180	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-80,157
• Equity at exit: $42,793

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-129,485
• Equity at exit: $24,815

Cash invested: $80,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 47 active · 52 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $324,990 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 76 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 2042
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax from tax record: −$518 /mo · $6,221/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,766

Max offer price $211,301

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-266	-5% $-347	+0% $-429	+5% $-510	+10% $-591
Rent	-10% $-604	-5% $-516	+0% $-429	+5% $-341	+10% $-253
Rate	-1.0pp $-284	-0.5pp $-356	base $-429	+0.5pp $-503	+1.0pp $-579

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,750
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
621 Spaulding St Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,990	$1.37	79d	1	0.02mi
713 Spaulding St Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,095	$1.45	12d	1	0.12mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	107d	1	0.14mi
721 White Comb Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,400	$1.32	50d	1	0.14mi
16612 Portage St Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,000	$1.35	139d	1	0.23mi
804 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,249	$1.20	88d	1	0.26mi
16537 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1653	$1,925	$1.16	67d	1	0.30mi
16441 Pembine Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,249	$1.24	54d	1	0.32mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,250	$1.29	45d	1	0.32mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	139d	1	0.32mi
16424 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,095	$1.26	6d	1	0.33mi
16617 Porterfield Ln Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,095	$1.35	139d	1	0.36mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,275	$1.24	51d	1	0.39mi
16625 Laguna Vista St Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,500	$1.55	0d	1	0.41mi
16756 Laguna Vista St Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1476	$2,100	$1.42	4d	1	0.50mi
16428 Marinette Ct Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1649	$2,295	$1.39	76d	1	0.52mi
16616 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,195	$1.32	64d	1	0.54mi
16616 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,195	$1.32	57d	1	0.54mi
229 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,100	$1.27	74d	1	0.56mi
16308 Caledonia Ct Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	84d	1	0.62mi
16029 Pemberly Way Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,995	$1.16	90d	1	0.86mi
16016 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,650	$1.08	10d	1	0.94mi
1017 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,150	$1.24	65d	1	0.99mi
1049 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,995	$1.16	54d	1	1.03mi
11828 Mancos Trl Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,809	$1.23	139d	1	1.13mi
16009 Wanderer Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,025	$1.42	31d	1	1.13mi
11816 Mancos Trl Aurora, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,899	$1.14	59d	1	1.16mi
11807 Marcellus Way Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$2,200	$1.32	48d	1	1.20mi
11807 Marcellus Way Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$2,149	$1.29	6d	1	1.20mi
11522 Gammon Ave Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,950	$1.39	6d	1	1.22mi
11707 Arkoma Dr Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,199	$1.57	3d	1	1.26mi
11846 Arkoma Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,900	$1.50	108d	1	1.28mi
11819 Arkoma Dr Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,925	$1.53	49d	1	1.30mi
12408 Sunland Ave Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,875	$1.20	139d	1	1.31mi
11826 Hermosa Ln Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,879	$1.27	10d	1	1.32mi
12630 Carpenter Ln Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,879	$1.21	120d	1	1.32mi
12808 Kingsgate Dr Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,950	$1.40	51d	1	1.43mi
11703 Spraberry Way Rhome, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,179	$1.22	24d	1	1.44mi
11719 Bone Spring Dr Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,990	$1.41	4d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Liberty Trls Ph 5 subdivisionMunicipal utility district: No
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAAnnual HOA feeHOA covers full use of facilities and management feesHOA managed by Vision Communities Management (VCM)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageDrivewayGarage door opener
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNatural gas availableIndividual gas meterIndividual water meterCable availableUnderground utilitiesCurbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyResidential propertyArchitectural and deed restrictions
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilt in 2023Preowned
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchInterior lotLandscaped yardSprinkler systemGrassed vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas rangeConvection ovenMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorKitchen islandGranite countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Fireplace heating optionCentral airCeiling fansElectric cooling components
• Interior features: Built-in featuresCable TV availableDecorative lightingGranite countersKitchen islandOpen floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

HOA detail $42/mo · $504/yr

• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-07-06
   days on market $287,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-07-06
   days on market $287,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-07-05
   days on market $287,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-07-03
   days on market $287,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-07-02
   days on market $287,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-07-01
   days on market $287,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-30
   days on market $287,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-29
   days on market $287,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-28
   days on market $287,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-27
    days on market $287,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-26
    days on market $287,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-24
    pricestatusdays on market $287,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-13
    statusdays on market $269,999 Pending 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-09
    days on market $269,999 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-06-08
    remarks 681-char remark
16. 2026-06-08
    listed $269,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,221 · $518/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,221 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$6,221
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$10,173
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,442
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,255–$21,765 screening

This move-in-ready home in Liberty Trails offers a good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. Simple exterior painting and gutter cleaning would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W R Hatfield El D- TX #1,006/4,322 Nat'l #14,504/41,679 Middle Chisholm Trail Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Northwest H S C+ TX #275/1,632 Nat'l #3,588/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Justin

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #9059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 21,726
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

---

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Liberty Trls Ph 5 subdivisionMunicipal utility district: No
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAAnnual HOA feeHOA covers full use of facilities and management feesHOA managed by Vision Communities Management (VCM)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garageDrivewayGarage door opener
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNatural gas availableIndividual gas meterIndividual water meterCable availableUnderground utilitiesCurbs and sidewalks
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyResidential propertyArchitectural and deed restrictions
• Construction: Brick constructionBuilt in 2023Preowned
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchInterior lotLandscaped yardSprinkler systemGrassed vegetation

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas rangeConvection ovenMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorKitchen islandGranite countertops
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Fireplace heating optionCentral airCeiling fansElectric cooling components
• Interior features: Built-in featuresCable TV availableDecorative lightingGranite countersKitchen islandOpen floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-07 Rental Removed $1,990 NTREIS
• 2026-07-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-26 Listed for Rent $1,990 NTREIS
• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $287,000 NTREIS
• 2026-06-22 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-06-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-10 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-06-07 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-06-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $269,999 NTREIS
• 2023-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+195.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,221 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.