580 Us Highway 158 Business E · Warrenton, NC 27589

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1962 2.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This listing is a great investment for one wanting to upgrade a home for primary use or for investors desiring to upgrade and rent/sell.

Key facts

• 2.75 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1962

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#250 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Warren County Schools (rural): math 11% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #174 of 178 in NC (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mariam Boyd Elementary (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,405 of 1,410 statewide, top 100%, 341 students, 99% FRL); Warren County High (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #488 of 535 statewide, top 91%, 384 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 255 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.73%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $62,523
• Equity at exit: $78,746

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.80×
• Total profit: $171,271
• Equity at exit: $167,396

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27589

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Warrenton Village Dr , NC	2.0	1.0	825	$1,099	$1.33	2d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-10-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-22
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$388
• After-tax cash flow: $2,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704740
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,433
• Composite: 14.62/100
• National rank: #9409
• State rank: #174 of 178 in NC

Livability — Warrenton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #250
• US rank: #11101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing D+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,763

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,664 people
• By 2030: 17,641 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 15,442 · -17.3%
• By 2050: 13,634 · -27.0%
• By 2075: 10,523 · -43.6%
• By 2100: 7,777 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 27% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 58.8% · R 39.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 39.5pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+25.7 2016: D+33.2 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.64%
• Current HPI: 303.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-02 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listed $90,000 TMLS