8163 Lady Bird · Seven Points, TX 75143

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1983 9,714 sqft lot $112/sqft · 38% below area Est $241k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Doublewide situated on three lots totaling over half an acre! This retrofitted home offers a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath split floor plan, providing privacy and functionality. The property is fully fenced with barbed wire and sits in a quiet neighborhood with a peaceful country feel, while still offering convenience. Plenty of room for outdoor living with front and back wooden porches, room for animals, or future improvements. A great opportunity for those looking for space, privacy, and immediate occupancy. Lots 28 ,29 and 30 are all included with the doublewide.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Three lots
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• THREE LOTS
• FULLY FENCED
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• FRONT AND BACK WOODEN PORCHES
• ROOM FOR ANIMALS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.1% in Seven Points — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,063 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Kemp ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #605 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 440 active listings in the ZIP; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,641
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -37.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-9,431
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,961
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75143

• Home prices YoY: -11.4%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,573 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,923/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $276	+0% $233	+5% $191	+10% $149
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $171	+0% $233	+5% $296	+10% $358
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $272	base $233	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-01-15
    listed $150,000 Active 569-char remark

    Show marketing remark (569 chars)

    Doublewide situated on three lots totaling over half an acre! This retrofitted home offers a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath split floor plan, providing privacy and functionality. The property is fully fenced with barbed wire and sits in a quiet neighborhood with a peaceful country feel, while still offering convenience. Plenty of room for outdoor living with front and back wooden porches, room for animals, or future improvements. A great opportunity for those looking for space, privacy, and immediate occupancy. Lots 28 ,29 and 30 are all included with the doublewide.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,923 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$822/yr (+$69/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,923
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,510
• − Management: −$1,510
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $2,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kemp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825320
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,788
• Composite: 26.37/100
• National rank: #7233
• State rank: #605 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seven Points

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #18899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,676

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.99%
• Current HPI: 332.57
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $150,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+33.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,923 · +34.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.