21402 Golden Dove Dr · Houston, TX 77388

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,415 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1981 7,701 sqft lot Est $238k · 7% under $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath single-story home offering comfort and practicality. Upon entry, you’re greeted by a spacious living area featuring high ceilings, a brick fireplace, and large windows that provide natural light and access to the backyard. The living space flows into the kitchen, which offers granite countertops and ample cabinetry. The primary bedroom is generously sized and includes an ensuite bath with dual sinks and a tub-shower combo. Two additional bedrooms are equally spacious and share a full bath with a tub-shower combo. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard with greenery, a patio for outdoor use, and a two

Key facts

• Large windows
• Dual sinks
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• BRICK FIREPLACE
• LARGE WINDOWS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• ENSUITE BATH
• DUAL SINKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-833/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kreinhop El (math 48% / reading 53%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 687 students, 58% FRL); Schindewolf Int (math 31% / reading 43%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,152 students, 55% FRL); Klein Collins H S (math 40% / reading 55%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,422 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 37% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $220k implies a 293% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21402 Golden Dove Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,415 (0%)	1mo	$219,900	$155	99
3326 Hartfield Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+3%)	6mo	$230,000	$158	84
3327 Haydee Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,335 (-6%)	8mo	$224,900	$168	76
21410 Glenbranch Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-6%)	10mo	$229,900	$173	70
21507 Glenbranch Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,507 (+6%)	10mo	$235,000	$156	69
3927 Falvel Cove Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+1%)	4mo	$259,000	$181	66
21606 Windsor Castle Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-4%)	10mo	$239,900	$177	61
3938 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-2%)	4mo	$229,500	$165	61
3918 Falvel Cove Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (-2%)	10mo	$260,000	$187	56
3426 Acorn Springs Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+5%)	8mo	$249,900	$168	51
3422 Acorn Springs Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+10%)	8mo	$237,000	$153	43
21622 Falvel Sunrise Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+10%)	10mo	$270,000	$174	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-45,931
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-68,369
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77388

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$417 /mo · $5,004/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,139

Max offer price $207,635

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $-7	+0% $-69	+5% $-132	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-150	+0% $-69	+5% $12	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-14	base $-69	+0.5pp $-126	+1.0pp $-184

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21400 Big Spring Valley Ave Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1074	$2,370	$2.21	4d	67	0.45mi
2953 FM 2920 Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$2,280	$2.29	0d	23	0.54mi
3899 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,796	$1.56	13d	1	0.56mi
3869 Farm to Market 2920 Unit 2920 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,774	$1.68	26d	1	0.56mi
3880 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$2,536	$2.45	0d	29	0.65mi
2555 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,941	$2.07	3d	12	0.71mi
21771 Mossy Field Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1631	$2,150	$1.32	45d	1	0.74mi
4018 Falvel Shadow Creek Dr Spring, TX	4.0	2.0	1458	$1,960	$1.34	12d	1	0.75mi
3402 Almondwood Dr Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,795	$1.27	14d	1	0.78mi
3223 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,739	$1.74	45d	1	0.87mi
4114 Farm to Market 2920 Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,146	$2.22	0d	23	0.87mi
3123 Spring Ranch Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,819	$1.12	45d	1	0.94mi
3123 Spring Ranch Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,819	$1.12	0d	1	0.94mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4242 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,210	$1.40	12d	1	0.95mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 424 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$1,966	$1.54	9d	1	0.95mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 2228 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$1,991	$1.56	0d	1	0.95mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 4246 Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$1,950	$1.53	0d	1	0.95mi
4209 Spring Stuebner Rd Unit 3228 Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$2,170	$1.37	0d	1	0.95mi
2539 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1086	$2,214	$2.04	0d	16	1.00mi
3607 Nutwood Ln Spring, TX	3.0	3.0	1299	$2,399	$1.85	45d	1	1.07mi
3789 Spring Cypress Rd Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1126	$1,589	$1.41	13d	1	1.16mi
21330 N Tangle Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,836	$1.49	45d	1	1.24mi
20525 Ella Blvd Spring, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$1,934	$2.19	0d	10	1.26mi
3421 Chadington Ln Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,497	$1.47	45d	1	1.43mi
4703 Owens Creek Ln Spring, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,920	$1.16	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-26
   price $219,900
4. 2026-02-23
   price $229,900
5. 2026-01-22
   price $239,900
6. 2025-12-22
   listed $249,900 Active
7. 2025-12-06
   historical $1,899
8. 2025-12-02
   price $1,899
9. 2025-11-19
   listed $1,949
10. 2006-07-31
    soldstatus
11. 2003-12-17
    soldstatus
12. 1994-03-31
    soldstatus $55,965

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,004 · $417/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,004 · $417/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$5,004
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$4,479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,425
• Household income: $102,323
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1419.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.68%
• Current HPI: 228.128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+292.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-06 Rental Removed $1,899 Tricon
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $1,899 Tricon
• 2025-11-19 Listed for Rent $1,949 Tricon
• 2006-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $55,965 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,004 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.