9863 Dancing Goat Pl · Connerton, FL 34638

$266,350

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,767 sqft · Townhouse · 4 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $151/sqft · 17% below area Est $320k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The collection's largest home offers two-stories of intentional design. The two-car garage leads to the first level's open floorplan, which includes the kitchen, dining room and family room with a covered patio for outdoor entertaining. Nearby, the owner's suite features a spa-like private bathroom. Upstairs is a versatile loft space and a convenient guest bedroom. Plus, this home includes a convenient storage space for a golf cart or other recreational vehicles.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Versatile loft space
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• SPA-LIKE PRIVATE BATHROOM
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE
• CONVENIENT STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $266k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.5% in Connerton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 873 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $216,657 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,282
• List price: $266,350
• Delta: -16.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10989 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.10mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-6%)	1mo	$249,900	$150	50
11015 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.12mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,787 (+1%)	20mo	$289,900	$162	41
11001 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,787 (+1%)	21mo	$299,900	$168	41
10966 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.07mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,787 (+1%)	21mo	$300,900	$168	40
10993 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.11mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-6%)	20mo	$259,900	$156	34
10985 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.10mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-6%)	20mo	$269,900	$162	34
10972 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.08mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-6%)	21mo	$259,900	$156	33
10959 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.08mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-6%)	21mo	$269,900	$162	33
10967 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.08mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-6%)	21mo	$264,900	$159	33
10961 Wishing Cloud Rd	1.09mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,666 (-6%)	21mo	$265,900	$160	33
17827 Turning Leaf Cir	0.85mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-13%)	13mo	$305,000	$199	25
18301 Turning Leaf Cir	0.95mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (-13%)	14mo	$330,000	$215	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-57,699
• Equity at exit: $39,714

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-85,235
• Equity at exit: $23,029

Cash invested: $74,578 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 1 under contract
• Median asking: $256,550 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 26 d
• This list price: 66% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 873
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,167 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,397
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$333 /mo · $3,995/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,330

Max offer price $247,670

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $55	-5% $-37	+0% $-129	+5% $-221	+10% $-313
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-215	+0% $-129	+5% $-44	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-61	base $-129	+0.5pp $-198	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,588
• Closing costs: $7,990
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9864 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,150	$1.45	18d	1	0.01mi
9896 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,175	$1.46	73d	1	0.03mi
18236 Hunters Meadow Walk Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2025	$2,195	$1.08	24d	1	0.38mi
9627 Jaybird Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2217	$2,199	$0.99	73d	1	0.56mi
18588 Hunters Meadow Walk Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1753	$2,220	$1.27	7d	1	0.62mi
17512 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	73d	1	0.63mi
10735 Hawks Landing Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,495	$1.35	64d	1	0.76mi
9540 Simeon Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2344	$2,150	$0.92	18d	1	0.87mi
18337 Falling Pine Needle Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	7d	1	0.87mi
17784 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,450	$1.60	73d	1	0.91mi
18906 Parapet Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2273	$2,155	$0.95	27d	1	0.94mi
18916 Randall Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1545	$2,200	$1.42	73d	1	0.94mi
18276 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,250	$1.47	40d	1	0.95mi
18276 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,250	$1.47	73d	1	0.95mi
18267 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,095	$1.38	73d	1	0.98mi
18267 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,095	$1.38	40d	1	0.98mi
18039 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,895	$1.91	73d	1	1.00mi
10567 Heron Hideaway Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,050	$1.34	61d	1	1.03mi
10956 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1666	$1,975	$1.19	15d	1	1.09mi
10956 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1666	$1,975	$1.19	13d	1	1.09mi
19104 Dunlap Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	7d	1	1.10mi
18774 Grand Live Oak Blvd Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,349	$1.80	48d	1	1.10mi
10981 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,000	$1.12	69d	1	1.13mi
18772 Grand Live Oak BLVD HOWEY IN HLS, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1076	$2,072	$1.93	7d	148	1.16mi
9313 Wellstone Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,200	$0.78	38d	1	1.22mi
11103 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,350	$1.32	73d	1	1.23mi
11115 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,250	$1.35	73d	1	1.24mi
11070 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,950	$1.17	73d	1	1.25mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	73d	1	1.26mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,075	$1.24	64d	1	1.26mi
11071 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	73d	1	1.27mi
9252 Zincoe Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,145	$1.29	7d	1	1.29mi
11147 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	73d	1	1.32mi
11194 Treasure Swale Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,200	$1.32	9d	1	1.36mi
11236 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,985	$1.19	25d	1	1.36mi
11262 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,195	$1.31	27d	1	1.38mi
11262 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,195	$1.31	54d	1	1.38mi
11440 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,050	$1.23	21d	1	1.45mi
11450 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,995	$1.19	67d	1	1.46mi

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,999
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,920
• − Property taxes: −$3,995
• − Insurance: −$1,332
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$7,748
• Taxable loss: −$6,156
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-72/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 20 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,835–$26,505 screening

This well-maintained, two-story townhouse is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The home's curb appeal and modern finishes make it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace window seals — Sealed windows improve energy efficiency and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B