612 12th Street Dr W · Palmetto, FL 34221

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1960 4,748 sqft lot Est $166k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor alert!! Great opportunity on this adorable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom single family home in Palmetto. Enter through the spacious and bright living room area which flows right into the kitchen/dining that's perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry with tons of storage and vinyl flooring that runs throughout the home. Large bedrooms with plenty of space that walks out to the updated tiled bathroom. Property is conveniently located close to restaurants, schools, parks, and transportation.

Key facts

• Brand-new roof
• Solid tile flooring
• 4,748 sq ft lot

Tags

• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• BRAND-NEW MAIN AC UNIT
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• SOLID TILE FLOORING
• LARGE COVERED CARPORT
• ATTACHED LAUNDRY STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RM6; Property type: Residential, single-family; Living area reported as 816 sq ft (public records); total building area 1,228 sq ft
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof with roof over; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.11-acre lot (approx. 50 x 95)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Chain link fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Living room / dining room combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (electric); Laundry room access; Outside laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($147/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.0% in Palmetto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Palmetto Elementary School (math 53% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 570 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $199k implies a 342% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,556 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,464
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
508 12th St W	0.14mi	2/1.0	768 (-6%)	15mo	$135,000	$176	71
1909 6th Ave W	0.43mi	2/1.0	834 (+2%)	11mo	$170,000	$204	67
1522 12th Street Dr W	0.73mi	2/1.0	908 (+11%)	17mo	$229,000	$252	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-36,486
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-50,169
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,598/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,700

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $69	+0% $12	+5% $-44	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-55	+0% $12	+5% $80	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $113	-0.5pp $63	base $12	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
518 12th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	17d	1	0.12mi
516 12th St W Unit A Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	612	$1,350	$2.21	17d	1	0.13mi
501 11th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,340	$1.58	3d	1	0.27mi
1229 11th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	1072	$1,800	$1.68	3d	1	0.33mi
1213 15th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	0.44mi
1809 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	24d	1	0.44mi
522 7th Ave W Unit 3 Palmetto, FL	1.0	1.0	535	$1,195	$2.23	24d	1	0.62mi
507 10th Ave W Palmetto, FL	2.0	1.0	737	$1,495	$2.03	17d	1	0.69mi
2225 14th Ave W Unit 204 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	24d	1	0.88mi
2225 14th Ave W Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	24d	1	0.88mi
1715 9th St W Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	24d	1	0.94mi
2320 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #211 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	978	$2,500	$2.56	24d	1	0.98mi
307 27th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	24d	1	1.08mi
719 23rd St E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,800	$1.70	11d	1	1.13mi
900 9th Ave E Unit 180 Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	17d	1	1.15mi
900 21st St E Palmetto, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	24d	1	1.18mi
2725 Terra Ceia Bay Blvd #203 Palmetto, FL	1.0	2.0	1106	$3,200	$2.89	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $199,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-28
   listed $199,000 Active
4. 2024-02-05
   historical $1,850
5. 2024-01-20
   listed $1,850
6. 2022-12-16
   historical
7. 2015-02-23
   soldstatus $45,000
8. 2015-02-06
   soldstatus $45,000 Sold 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   Investor alert!! Great opportunity on this adorable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom single family home in Palmetto. Enter through the spacious and bright living room area which flows right into the kitchen/dining that's perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry with tons of storage and vinyl flooring that runs throughout the home. Large bedrooms with plenty of space that walks out to the updated tiled bathroom. Property is conveniently located close to restaurants, schools, parks, and transportation.

9. 2015-02-05
   status Pending 516-char remark

   Show marketing remark (516 chars)

   Investor alert!! Great opportunity on this adorable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom single family home in Palmetto. Enter through the spacious and bright living room area which flows right into the kitchen/dining that's perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry with tons of storage and vinyl flooring that runs throughout the home. Large bedrooms with plenty of space that walks out to the updated tiled bathroom. Property is conveniently located close to restaurants, schools, parks, and transportation.

10. 2015-01-17
    historical Contingent - REO Waiting For Signatures 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Investor alert!! Great opportunity on this adorable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom single family home in Palmetto. Enter through the spacious and bright living room area which flows right into the kitchen/dining that's perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry with tons of storage and vinyl flooring that runs throughout the home. Large bedrooms with plenty of space that walks out to the updated tiled bathroom. Property is conveniently located close to restaurants, schools, parks, and transportation.

11. 2014-12-18
    price $44,900 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Investor alert!! Great opportunity on this adorable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom single family home in Palmetto. Enter through the spacious and bright living room area which flows right into the kitchen/dining that's perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry with tons of storage and vinyl flooring that runs throughout the home. Large bedrooms with plenty of space that walks out to the updated tiled bathroom. Property is conveniently located close to restaurants, schools, parks, and transportation.

12. 2014-11-18
    listed $47,500 Active 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Investor alert!! Great opportunity on this adorable 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom single family home in Palmetto. Enter through the spacious and bright living room area which flows right into the kitchen/dining that's perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features white cabinetry with tons of storage and vinyl flooring that runs throughout the home. Large bedrooms with plenty of space that walks out to the updated tiled bathroom. Property is conveniently located close to restaurants, schools, parks, and transportation.

13. 2014-11-01
    historical
14. 2014-10-16
    price $47,500
15. 2014-09-11
    price $49,900
16. 2014-08-02
    listed $52,500 Active
17. 2012-08-22
    historical
18. 2012-06-04
    listed $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,598 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,598 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,598
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$777
• After-tax cash flow: $924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmetto, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+696.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-05 Rental Removed $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2024-01-20 Listed for Rent $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2022-12-16 Rental Removed — APPFOLIO
• 2015-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-06 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-01-17 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-18 Price Changed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-18 Listed $47,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-16 Price Changed $47,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-11 Price Changed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-02 Listed $52,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-04 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,598 · +11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.