473 Jones Beach Ln · Jarrell, TX 76537

$207,249

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · Other · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,662 sqft lot $140/sqft · at area comps Est $206k · at est. $101/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Hoffman - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $207k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($491/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $180,340 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,630
• List price: $207,249
• Delta: 0.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-36,267
• Equity at exit: $30,901

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-48,663
• Equity at exit: $17,919

Cash invested: $58,030 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,087
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,315/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$101
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,752

Max offer price $207,249

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $100	+0% $41	+5% $-18	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-102	-5% $-30	+0% $41	+5% $112	+10% $183
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $94	base $41	+0.5pp $-13	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,812
• Closing costs: $6,217
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	25d	1	0.07mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	6d	1	0.07mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	45d	1	0.07mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	22d	1	0.13mi
128 Hasty Heart Ct Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,750	$1.09	0d	1	0.20mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	45d	1	0.24mi
544 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	0.27mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	4d	1	0.29mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	45d	1	0.33mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	16d	1	0.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $101 · $1,212/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $207,249 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $207,249 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $207,249 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $206,499 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $208,499 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $208,499 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $207,749 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $207,749 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $207,749 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $206,499 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $206,499 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $206,499 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $206,499 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,999 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,999 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,999 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $226,999 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    The Hoffman - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

18. 2026-04-16
    listed $219,990 Active 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    The Hoffman - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,315 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,793 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,477/yr (+$206/mo · 188.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,609
• − Property taxes: −$1,315
• − Insurance: −$1,036
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,731
• − Management: −$1,731
• − HOA: −$1,212
• − Depreciation: −$6,029
• Taxable loss: −$3,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$726
• After-tax cash flow: $1,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-level home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $226,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $219,990 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,315 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.