808 Saint Marys Dr · Waycross, GA 31501

$229,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1994 Est $161k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very unique and lovely 3 BR/3 Bath brick townhome located conveniently to the heart of Waycross. As you enter the foyer, your eyes will immediately be drawn to the fabulous hardwood floors that lead you to the spacious living room overlooking the private patio area and back yard. The formal dining room is centered between the living room and kitchen and features decorative wood, chair railing and crown molding, as well as hardwood flooring. The kitchen offers black appliances, plenty of cabinets and counter space, and flows directly into the breakfast room with lots of natural light from the large bay window. Downstairs there are 2 large bedrooms, each with their own walk in closet and nice

Key facts

• Built 1994

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Waycross — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ware County (town): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #95 of 174 in GA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Williams Heights Elementary School (math 28% / reading 35%, grade F, #612 of 1,228 statewide, top 50%, 426 students, 80% FRL); Waycross Middle School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #249 of 470 statewide, top 55%, 583 students, 86% FRL); Ware County High School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #122 of 424 statewide, top 30%, 1,589 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 64% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 45 units permitted in Ware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ware County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $230k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,688 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,576
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
904 Richmond Ave	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-3%)	9mo	$150,000	$100	72
912 Coral Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+3%)	12mo	$157,500	$99	60
1009 Baltimore Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+8%)	8mo	$128,865	$77	58
201 Baltimore Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,552 (+0%)	15mo	$182,000	$117	54
805 Baltimore Ave	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+14%)	4mo	$189,900	$108	51
501 Oakwood Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,400 (-9%)	16mo	$145,000	$104	49
1204 Richmond Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,763 (+14%)	3mo	$184,000	$104	48
505 Magnolia St	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,632 (+6%)	19mo	$180,000	$110	47
400 Hill St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+10%)	9mo	$205,500	$121	46
1109 Euclid Ave	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,687 (+9%)	16mo	$148,000	$88	45
701 Ava St	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-14%)	9mo	$145,000	$110	42
409 Magnolia St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,391 (-10%)	14mo	$135,000	$97	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-31,159
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-19,568
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31501

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $914/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $162	+0% $97	+5% $32	+10% $-33
Rent	-10% $-50	-5% $24	+0% $97	+5% $171	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $213	-0.5pp $156	base $97	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
808 Satilla Blvd Waycross, GA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	0.17mi
801 Naomi St Waycross, GA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$875	$0.79	45d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $229,900
2. 2012-06-14
   soldstatus $105,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,115 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,201/yr (+$100/mo · 131.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$914
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$2,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$675
• After-tax cash flow: $1,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ware County
• NCES district ID: 1305430
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,231
• Composite: 25.6/100
• National rank: #7415
• State rank: #95 of 174 in GA

Livability — Waycross

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #23458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waycross, GA
• City population: 36,207
• Population (ZIP): 13,034

Population outlook (Ware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,313 people
• By 2030: 32,071 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 29,587 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 27,197 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 22,323 · -33.0%
• By 2100: 18,197 · -45.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 45% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ware

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.3% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+41.7 2012: R+33.9 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.90%
• Current HPI: 243.5058
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+118.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $229,900 FSBO.com
• 2012-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $105,100 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $914 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.