3 Fordham Hill Oval Unit 3D · New York, NY 10468

$149,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Condo · 44 Days on market

Built 1950 ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Finale and best offer by Monday April 21 - 25 Open house Saturday April -19-25 Bright & Spacious 1-Bedroom with Incredible Views – Must See! Step into this inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bath apartment that boasts an open-concept living and dining space filled with natural light and stunning panoramic views. Perfectly situated in a well-maintained gated community, this home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Residents enjoy a fully equipped fitness center, 24-hour security for peace of mind, a children's playground, on-site laundry facilities, serene garden seating areas, and a welcoming community room for gatherings. Commuting is a breeze with easy access to public transportatio

Key facts

• 24-hour security
• Incredible views
• Open-concept living

Tags

• INCREDIBLE VIEWS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• FULLY EQUIPPED FITNESS CENTER
• 24-HOUR SECURITY
• CHILDREN'S PLAYGROUND
• ON-SITE LAUNDRY FACILITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-873 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate -0.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,228/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 9659% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $756 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 72% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,499 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: -0.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.95%
• DSCR: -0.11
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.5% appreciation · 6.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-46,811
• Equity at exit: $47,371

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-46,350
• Equity at exit: $60,084

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10468

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$1,597
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,334

Max offer price $23,615

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-770	-5% $-822	+0% $-873	+5% $-925	+10% $-977
Rent	-10% $-1,049	-5% $-961	+0% $-873	+5% $-785	+10% $-697
Rate	-1.0pp $-798	-0.5pp $-835	base $-873	+0.5pp $-912	+1.0pp $-952

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$2,775	$2.45	22d	3	1.02mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: gymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-11-20
   historical
2. 2025-11-11
   status Active
3. 2025-10-15
   status Pending
4. 2025-10-15
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-15
   status Active
6. 2025-10-15
   historical
7. 2025-09-29
   price $165,000
8. 2025-07-02
   price $138,089
9. 2025-06-10
   price $138,000
10. 2025-05-30
    price $148,888
11. 2025-05-22
    listed $148,000 Active
12. 2025-05-14
    price $149,999
13. 2025-04-08
    listed $150,000 Active
14. 2022-04-25
    listed $169,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − HOA: −$19,164
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$12,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,993
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 75,557
• Household income: $46,233
• Rent vs Own: 91.5% rent · 8.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9659.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Black 17% Two or more races 15% White 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 45%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 69% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Current HPI: 249.8923
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $138,089 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-10 Price Changed $138,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $148,888 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listed $148,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $149,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-25 Listed $169,000 RLS at REBNY