2906 138th Pl · Lubbock, TX 79423

$286,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,858 sqft · Other · 223 Days on market

Built 2025 6,477 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to 2906 138th Place! The Texas Cali plan is a fantastic one-story home that offers both comfort and style, featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage. Step inside and a welcoming long foyer with an entry coat closet guides you into the heart of the home. Here, you'll discover an open-concept kitchen and breakfast area. The kitchen is a chef's dream, complete with a breakfast bar with beautiful countertops, sleek stainless steel appliances, and a convenient corner pantry. It seamlessly flows into the family room, creating an ideal space for entertaining or simply relaxing with loved ones. The primary suite is a true retreat. It boasts a charming sloped ceiling and an attractive primary bath that includes dual vanities and a spacious walk-in closet, giving you all the room you need to start your day. For outdoor enjoyment, a standard rear covered patio is perfectly situated off the breakfast area. Contact us today and find your home in Viridian! Images may vary from actual home.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Open-concept kitchen
• Corner pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• CORNER PANTRY
• FAMILY ROOM
• SLOPED CEILING
• DUAL VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $287k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-858/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lubbock-Cooper South El (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 739 students, 41% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper Middle (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #470 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 914 students, 37% FRL); Lubbock-Cooper H S (math 67% / reading 65%, grade B, #189 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,117 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 673 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,701 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-52,980
• Equity at exit: $42,791

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-59,744
• Equity at exit: $24,814

Cash invested: $80,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 673
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,027 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,505
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $579/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,118

Max offer price $274,354

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $10	+0% $-72	+5% $-481	+10% $-580
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-152	+0% $-72	+5% $9	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $1	base $-72	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,748
• Closing costs: $8,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,400	$1.24	23d	1	0.04mi
2745 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,550	$1.10	23d	1	0.07mi
2739 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,600	$1.13	45d	1	0.07mi
2713 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	23d	1	0.09mi
2925 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	5.0	2.5	2135	$2,495	$1.17	15d	1	0.15mi
2550 137th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1732	$1,795	$1.04	15d	1	0.20mi
2903 134th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,300	$1.23	23d	1	0.23mi
3008 139th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	23d	1	0.23mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.24mi
3011 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	0.24mi
2627 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,600	$1.05	23d	1	0.25mi
2613 136th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,599	$1.28	23d	1	0.25mi
3015 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	45d	1	0.26mi
3016 140th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,000	$1.48	23d	1	0.28mi
2607 135th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,500	$0.99	45d	1	0.29mi
3105 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	15d	1	0.36mi
3111 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	45d	1	0.38mi
2309 134th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,799	$1.24	15d	1	0.47mi
2308 133rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	45d	1	0.52mi
2415 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	15d	1	0.55mi
2410 144th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,500	$1.11	45d	1	0.55mi
2410 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	45d	1	0.55mi
2404 144th St Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,399	$1.04	45d	1	0.58mi
13802 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,900	$1.04	15d	1	0.58mi
14408 Avenue X Unit 1-2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1350	$1,500	$1.11	15d	1	0.61mi
14413 Avenue X Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.65mi
14102 Avenue V Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	0.72mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	0.74mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,700	$1.34	15d	1	0.74mi
2217 150th Pl Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,150	$1.21	15d	1	0.96mi
1907 136th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,050	$1.00	15d	1	0.96mi
13808 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	45d	1	0.99mi
13218 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.02mi
13213 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	15d	1	1.05mi
3605 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2544	$3,800	$1.49	45d	1	1.07mi
13212 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,699	$1.17	23d	1	1.08mi
13212 Avenue R Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,625	$1.12	15d	1	1.14mi
1705 141st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,795	$1.24	23d	1	1.21mi
1635 133rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,500	$0.98	23d	1	1.24mi
3515 124th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	2201	$3,400	$1.54	15d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $286,990 Pending 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $286,990 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $286,990 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $286,990 Active 221 DOM
5. 2025-10-21
   listed $286,990 Active 1012-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

   Welcome home to 2906 138th Place! The Texas Cali plan is a fantastic one-story home that offers both comfort and style, featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 2-car garage. Step inside and a welcoming long foyer with an entry coat closet guides you into the heart of the home. Here, you'll discover an open-concept kitchen and breakfast area. The kitchen is a chef's dream, complete with a breakfast bar with beautiful countertops, sleek stainless steel appliances, and a convenient corner pantry. It seamlessly flows into the family room, creating an ideal space for entertaining or simply relaxing with loved ones. The primary suite is a true retreat. It boasts a charming sloped ceiling and an attractive primary bath that includes dual vanities and a spacious walk-in closet, giving you all the room you need to start your day. For outdoor enjoyment, a standard rear covered patio is perfectly situated off the breakfast area. Contact us today and find your home in Viridian! Images may vary from actual home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $579 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,252 · $438/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,673/yr (+$389/mo · 806.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,076
• − Property taxes: −$579
• − Insurance: −$1,435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − Depreciation: −$8,349
• Taxable loss: −$6,007
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,442
• After-tax cash flow: $583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Listed $286,990 LARMLS

Property tax history

+145.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $579 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.