8916 W 89th Ave · St. John, IN 46373

$400,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,452 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1984 0.54 ac lot Est $512k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Must-see 5-bedroom, 3 full bath bi-level on over half an acre offering space (inside and outside), functionality, and updates throughout. Enjoy multiple living areas including a great room, formal dining room, breakfast room, family room, and a finished basement- all perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The updated kitchen with trendy brown cabinets, stainless steel appliances, backsplash plus island for extra prep space & storage serves as the heart of the home. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen to surrounding spaces. Walls of windows in the breakfast room and family room bring in loads of natural light and overlook the expansive backyard. The fini

Key facts

• Walls of windows
• Finished basement
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WALLS OF WINDOWS
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($243/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.6% in St. John — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Central School Corporation (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #41 of 301 in IN (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kolling Elementary School (math 67% / reading 51%, grade B-, #151 of 994 statewide, top 16%, 695 students, 17% FRL); Lake Central High School (math 46% / reading 74%, grade C+, #46 of 369 statewide, top 13%, 3,069 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $320,000 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $512,468
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9270 W 93rd Ave	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,340 (-5%)	3mo	$355,900	$152	61
9140 W 93rd Ave	0.48mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,496 (+2%)	14mo	$345,000	$138	58
9240 W 93rd Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,239 (-9%)	1mo	$360,000	$161	55
8342 Emerson Dr	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,308 (-6%)	12mo	$449,900	$195	51
9202 Merrimack Ct	0.52mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,308 (-6%)	15mo	$497,000	$215	47
8093 W 88th Ave	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,398 (-2%)	22mo	$500,101	$209	40
8222 Morning Crest Ct	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,764 (+13%)	22mo	$565,541	$205	35
9210 Drake Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,112 (-14%)	23mo	$515,000	$244	34
8266 W 88th Ave	0.67mi	5/3.0	2,765 (+13%)	18mo	$651,844	$236	28
8043 Wyman Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,800 (+14%)	21mo	$686,073	$245	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-63,636
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-54,196
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46373

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,921/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,174

Max offer price $400,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $133	+0% $20	+5% $-93	+10% $-206
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-106	+0% $20	+5% $147	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $222	-0.5pp $122	base $20	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-189

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10173 Joliet St Saint John, IN	4.0	2.0	2413	$3,200	$1.33	2d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $400,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,921 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,161 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$2,921
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$6,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,610
• After-tax cash flow: $1,853/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Central School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1805450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $75,957
• Composite: 44.82/100
• National rank: #2736
• State rank: #41 of 301 in IN

Livability — St. John

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. John, IN
• City population: 18,509
• Population (ZIP): 18,509

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.86%
• Current HPI: 224.1176
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $400,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,921 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.