16 Pin Oak Ln · Little Egg Harbor, NJ 08087

$264,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,090 sqft · Townhouse public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1986 Est $235k · 13% over $176/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right in this 2 bedroom 2.5 baths end unit townhouse-neat and clean, gas fireplace-inground pool for those hot days of summer. Won't last long.

Key facts

• First floor laundry
• One year old roof
• $176 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD PATIO
• FRESHLY PAVED ASSIGNED PARKING
• ONE YEAR OLD ROOF
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Improvement assessed $55,400; Land assessed $27,000; Tax assessed $82,400 (2025); Annual tax around $2,704 (2025)
• HOA & community: HOA fee $176 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with 2 spaces (total 2 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling
• Home design: End of row/townhouse; Fee simple ownership; Year built estimated
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asbestos shingle roof; Slab foundation; Above-grade other structures
• Exterior features: End unit on a corner lot/unit; Community pool; Property managed by a property manager; Not in a federal flood zone; Bus stop less than 1 mile away; Directions available: Radio Road to Pin Oak, make a left; house is on the right (end unit)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Interior features: One fireplace; No basement; Living area per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($46/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinelands Regional School District (rural): math 14% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #344 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 296 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $265k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,113 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,440
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Tavistock #16	0.07mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,090 (0%)	3mo	$240,000	$220	87
16 Tavistock Dr	0.07mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,090 (0%)	3mo	$240,000	$220	87
39 Pin Oak Ln	0.05mi	2/1.5	1,057 (-3%)	16mo	$200,000	$189	78
111 Tavistock Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5	936 (-14%)	3mo	$220,000	$235	66
163 Westchester Dr	0.64mi	2/1.5	1,158 (+6%)	2mo	$285,000	$246	57
67 Tavistock Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	936 (-14%)	16mo	$200,000	$214	56
142 Westchester Dr	0.61mi	2/1.5	1,158 (+6%)	7mo	$216,250	$187	53
175 Westchester Dr	0.58mi	2/1.5	1,158 (+6%)	14mo	$250,000	$216	49
139 Westchester Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+6%)	10mo	$279,000	$241	46
121 Westchester Dr	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,160 (+6%)	19mo	$185,000	$159	36
32 Whitemarsh Ct	0.62mi	2/1.0	978 (-10%)	17mo	$174,900	$179	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-42,602
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,461
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08087

• Active inventory: 296
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,411 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,705/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$176
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32 Pin Oak Ln Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	1.5	1000	$2,550	$2.55	1d	1	0.05mi
211 Harbourtown Blvd Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	2.0	1.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	1d	1	0.23mi
12 Timberline Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	2.0	1.5	943	$2,250	$2.39	24d	1	0.69mi
128 E Dory Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,800	$2.45	1d	1	0.93mi
28 S Los Angeles Dr Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ	3.0	1.0	1244	$2,300	$1.85	1d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $176 · $2,112/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $264,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $264,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $264,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $264,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-07
   listed $264,900 Active 1056-char remark
10. 2026-05-01
    price $1,800
11. 2026-03-18
    listed $2,000
12. 2016-12-21
    soldstatus $81,000
13. 2016-11-18
    soldstatus $81,000 Closed 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Move right in this 2 bedroom 2.5 baths end unit townhouse-neat and clean, gas fireplace-inground pool for those hot days of summer. Won't last long.

14. 2016-08-11
    status Under Contract 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Move right in this 2 bedroom 2.5 baths end unit townhouse-neat and clean, gas fireplace-inground pool for those hot days of summer. Won't last long.

15. 2016-07-11
    listed $84,900 Active 148-char remark

    Show marketing remark (148 chars)

    Move right in this 2 bedroom 2.5 baths end unit townhouse-neat and clean, gas fireplace-inground pool for those hot days of summer. Won't last long.

16. 2001-10-12
    soldstatus $67,500
17. 2001-09-28
    soldstatus $67,500

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    END UNIT READY TO MOVE IN GOOD CONDITION

18. 2001-06-30
    historical
19. 2001-04-21
    listed $74,900

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    END UNIT READY TO MOVE IN GOOD CONDITION

20. 2000-12-17
    listed $65,000
21. 1993-12-14
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 1986-05-01
    soldstatus $58,090

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,651 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,945/yr (+$162/mo · 71.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$2,705
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − HOA: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$4,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $1,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinelands Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3413000
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,396
• Composite: 26.97/100
• National rank: #7075
• State rank: #344 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Little Egg Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,342
• Household income: $91,677
• Rent vs Own: 16.6% rent · 83.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 519.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.86%
• Current HPI: 340.4378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-96.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-21 Rental Removed $1,800 MOMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $264,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $1,800 MOMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed for Rent $2,000 MOMLS
• 2016-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-18 Sold (MLS) $81,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-08-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-11 Listed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2001-09-28 Sold (MLS) $67,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-06-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-04-21 Listed $74,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-12-17 Listed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1993-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1986-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,090 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,705 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.