2436 Pecos Ln · Poinciana, FL 34759

$338,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,828 sqft · Land · 127 Days on market

Built 2025 0.38 ac lot $81/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 2436 PECOS LN POINCIANA FL 34759 priced at 338990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Quartz countertops
• Open layout

Tags

• ONE STORY CALI FLOORPLAN
• OPEN LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Leland Management - Angel; HOA dues required: $979.44 annually ($81.62/month); Deed restrictions; Street lights; Pets allowed: cats and dogs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20x20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (projected completion May 30, 2026); One level; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: D.R. Horton; Model: Cali; Under construction
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Metered sprinkler/irrigation system; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Stone counters; Split bedroom plan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-670 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (34.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (34.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $339k implies a 897% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,996 (34.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.47%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-79,442
• Equity at exit: $74,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-119,608
• Equity at exit: $71,422

Cash invested: $94,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$424 /mo · $5,085/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,068

Max offer price $242,052

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,748
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1388 N Platte Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	10d	1	0.33mi
1174 N Platte Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2308	$2,400	$1.04	14d	1	0.38mi
1019 N Platte Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,595	$1.09	23d	1	0.41mi
650 Hudson Valley Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,734	$1.10	3d	1	0.57mi
1142 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,700	$1.32	23d	1	0.58mi
1144 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	23d	1	0.58mi
1160 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$4,500	$2.08	23d	1	0.62mi
1167 Nelson Meadow Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1868	$1,875	$1.00	14d	1	0.66mi
994 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,825	$1.10	23d	1	0.68mi
1157 Hudson Harbor Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,850	$1.14	23d	1	0.77mi
733 James Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	23d	1	0.86mi
642 Desmoines Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1826	$1,975	$1.08	3d	1	0.87mi
802 James Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	12d	1	0.90mi
430 Big Sioux Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2430	$2,000	$0.82	23d	1	1.02mi
935 Cumberland Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,599	$1.27	14d	1	1.07mi
943 Cumberland Dr Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	23d	1	1.08mi
377 Cimarron Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1999	$1,950	$0.98	12d	1	1.08mi
423 Churchill Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1711	$1,975	$1.15	23d	1	1.10mi
101 Big Black Dr Kissimmee, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,500	$0.99	23d	1	1.15mi
217 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,085	$1.25	19d	1	1.23mi
245 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,125	$1.71	23d	1	1.24mi
157 Cimarron Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2097	$2,000	$0.95	3d	1	1.25mi
237 Cimarron Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,950	$1.25	23d	1	1.26mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	19d	1	1.35mi
205 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1678	$2,100	$1.25	10d	1	1.35mi
132 Golf Aire Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1844	$1,800	$0.98	23d	1	1.41mi
2004 Red Fox Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	2186	$2,399	$1.10	2d	10	1.42mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	23d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $338,990 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $338,990 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $338,990 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $338,990 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $338,990 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $338,990 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $338,990 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,990 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $338,990 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $338,990 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $338,990 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $338,990 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $338,990 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $338,990
15. 2026-04-29
    price $338,990 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    The property is located at 2436 PECOS LN POINCIANA FL 34759 priced at 338990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

16. 2026-02-11
    listed $339,650 Active
17. 2026-02-07
    listed $339,650 Active 232-char remark

    Show marketing remark (232 chars)

    The property is located at 2436 PECOS LN POINCIANA FL 34759 priced at 338990, the square foot and stories are 1828, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

18. 2025-10-21
    soldstatus $34,000
19. 2025-10-16
    soldstatus $34,000 Closed 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Prime opportunity for builders and investors! This oversized 0.38-acre residential lot is located at 2436 Pecos Lane in the rapidly developing community of Poinciana, FL 34759. Situated in Village 7, the lot offers easy access to expanding infrastructure, parks, schools, and shopping. With public utilities available and no timeframe to build, this property is ideal for holding as a long-term investment or starting a new construction project in a high-growth area. The generous lot size provides design flexibility for custom or spec homes. Take advantage of the continued residential demand in Central Florida and secure this homesite today.

20. 2025-08-06
    status Pending 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Prime opportunity for builders and investors! This oversized 0.38-acre residential lot is located at 2436 Pecos Lane in the rapidly developing community of Poinciana, FL 34759. Situated in Village 7, the lot offers easy access to expanding infrastructure, parks, schools, and shopping. With public utilities available and no timeframe to build, this property is ideal for holding as a long-term investment or starting a new construction project in a high-growth area. The generous lot size provides design flexibility for custom or spec homes. Take advantage of the continued residential demand in Central Florida and secure this homesite today.

21. 2025-06-17
    listed $55,000 Active 645-char remark

    Show marketing remark (645 chars)

    Prime opportunity for builders and investors! This oversized 0.38-acre residential lot is located at 2436 Pecos Lane in the rapidly developing community of Poinciana, FL 34759. Situated in Village 7, the lot offers easy access to expanding infrastructure, parks, schools, and shopping. With public utilities available and no timeframe to build, this property is ideal for holding as a long-term investment or starting a new construction project in a high-growth area. The generous lot size provides design flexibility for custom or spec homes. Take advantage of the continued residential demand in Central Florida and secure this homesite today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$5,085
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$14,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,414
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+516.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $338,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $338,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-11 Listed $339,650 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Listed $339,650 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-16 Sold (MLS) $34,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Listed $55,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $303 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.