405 S 2nd St · Stockdale, TX 78160

$189,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1940 Est $302k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

INTERESTING,APPROX 1800SF,4/5 BEDROOMS-2-BATHROOMS,2-DINING/LIVING AREAS, NEWER ADDITION IN 99,NEWER CENTRAL AIR/HEAT,METAL ROOF,FASCIA & SIDING,BUILDINS,LG UTILITY ROOM,SLAB & PIER FOUNDATION,LG CLOSETS,NEARLY 1/2 ACRE LOT IN TOWN W/LG TREES,ESTATE SALE,NO DISCLOSURES,GREAT PRICE, AGE OF HOME APPROX,ESTATE SALE,NO DISCLOSURES,TAKE A LOOK!! DOES NEED SOME WORK,BUT PRICED WITH THAT IN MIND

Key facts

• Gas stove
• Built 1940
• Listed 31 days

Tags

• GAS STOVE
• WASHER DRYER INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-681/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.4% in Stockdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#490 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stockdale ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #232 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stockdale El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 397 students, 54% FRL); Stockdale J H (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 199 students, 53% FRL); Stockdale H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 257 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,726 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.28%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,032
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
502 8th	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-6%)	9mo	$285,000	$172	59
613 S 2nd St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,682 (-4%)	23mo	$295,000	$175	53
111 E Mayer	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (+7%)	4mo	$379,900	$202	50
402 Free Timber Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+2%)	9mo	$200,000	$111	50
805 S 6th St	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,008 (+14%)	1mo	$286,200	$143	48
12132 CR 401	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-1%)	24mo	$605,000	$349	36
108 Guerra St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,990 (+13%)	13mo	$310,000	$156	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $25,798
• Equity at exit: $92,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $89,066
• Equity at exit: $147,754

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78160

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,587 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,856/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $179,472

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $-3	+0% $-57	+5% $-110	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-182	-5% $-119	+0% $-57	+5% $6	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-9	base $-57	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,500 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,500 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,500 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,500 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,500 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,500 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,500 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,500 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,500 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,500 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,500 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,500 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,500 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,500 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    listed $189,500 Active
16. 2005-07-05
    soldstatus
17. 2005-06-28
    soldstatus 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    INTERESTING,APPROX 1800SF,4/5 BEDROOMS-2-BATHROOMS,2-DINING/LIVING AREAS, NEWER ADDITION IN 99,NEWER CENTRAL AIR/HEAT,METAL ROOF,FASCIA & SIDING,BUILDINS,LG UTILITY ROOM,SLAB & PIER FOUNDATION,LG CLOSETS,NEARLY 1/2 ACRE LOT IN TOWN W/LG TREES,ESTATE SALE,NO DISCLOSURES,GREAT PRICE, AGE OF HOME APPROX,ESTATE SALE,NO DISCLOSURES,TAKE A LOOK!! DOES NEED SOME WORK,BUT PRICED WITH THAT IN MIND

18. 2005-05-28
    historical 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    INTERESTING,APPROX 1800SF,4/5 BEDROOMS-2-BATHROOMS,2-DINING/LIVING AREAS, NEWER ADDITION IN 99,NEWER CENTRAL AIR/HEAT,METAL ROOF,FASCIA & SIDING,BUILDINS,LG UTILITY ROOM,SLAB & PIER FOUNDATION,LG CLOSETS,NEARLY 1/2 ACRE LOT IN TOWN W/LG TREES,ESTATE SALE,NO DISCLOSURES,GREAT PRICE, AGE OF HOME APPROX,ESTATE SALE,NO DISCLOSURES,TAKE A LOOK!! DOES NEED SOME WORK,BUT PRICED WITH THAT IN MIND

19. 2005-02-10
    listed $59,500 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    INTERESTING,APPROX 1800SF,4/5 BEDROOMS-2-BATHROOMS,2-DINING/LIVING AREAS, NEWER ADDITION IN 99,NEWER CENTRAL AIR/HEAT,METAL ROOF,FASCIA & SIDING,BUILDINS,LG UTILITY ROOM,SLAB & PIER FOUNDATION,LG CLOSETS,NEARLY 1/2 ACRE LOT IN TOWN W/LG TREES,ESTATE SALE,NO DISCLOSURES,GREAT PRICE, AGE OF HOME APPROX,ESTATE SALE,NO DISCLOSURES,TAKE A LOOK!! DOES NEED SOME WORK,BUT PRICED WITH THAT IN MIND

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,856 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,468 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 21.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$2,856
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,524
• − Management: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$3,931
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$944
• After-tax cash flow: $262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockdale ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841610
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,496
• Composite: 40.1/100
• National rank: #3805
• State rank: #232 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stockdale

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #490
• US rank: #9696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockdale, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,705

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,434 people
• By 2030: 63,912 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 74,704 · +27.8%
• By 2050: 85,024 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 111,025 · +90.0%
• By 2100: 126,692 · +116.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 15% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Current HPI: 199.3717
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+218.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $189,500 FSBO.com
• 2005-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-06-28 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2005-05-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2005-02-10 Listed $59,500 LERA

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,856 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.