202 Morning Frost St · Taneytown, MD 21787

$280,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,449 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2002 10,628 sqft lot $115/sqft · 62% below area Est $386k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity on this ranch style home with basement. It offers approximately 1,284 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Built in 2002 repairs and updates are needed but has potential. Ceiling damages. Property sold "AS-IS" without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect prior bidding. Auction.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 28 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $281k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.8% in Taneytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#149 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Carroll County Public Schools (suburban): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #2 of 24 in MD (top 8%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 156 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $281k implies a 251% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,648 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,804
• List price: $280,900
• Delta: -27.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 Bancroft St	0.20mi	3/3.5	2,524 (+3%)	1mo	$495,000	$196	83
209 Colbert St	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,500 (+2%)	6mo	$515,000	$206	79
33 Bancroft St	0.14mi	3/3.0	2,376 (-3%)	12mo	$400,000	$168	78
220 Colbert St	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,352 (-4%)	12mo	$480,000	$204	72
39 Obrien Ave	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,220 (-9%)	5mo	$325,000	$146	62
21 O Brien Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,172 (-11%)	1mo	$430,000	$198	60
27 Planetree Dr	0.41mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,646 (+8%)	6mo	$435,000	$164	55
142 Crimson Ave	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,352 (-4%)	4mo	$410,000	$174	55
94 Kenan St	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,087 (-15%)	2mo	$415,000	$199	54
51 Bowie Mill Ave	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,184 (-11%)	9mo	$480,000	$220	53
525 Bull Run Rd	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (-10%)	3mo	$449,900	$205	48
30 Bowie Mill Ave	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,794 (+14%)	10mo	$540,000	$193	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-62,494
• Equity at exit: $41,883

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-76,081
• Equity at exit: $24,287

Cash invested: $78,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21787

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,473
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,953/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,535

Max offer price $233,618

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-109	-5% $-188	+0% $-268	+5% $-347	+10% $-427
Rent	-10% $-441	-5% $-354	+0% $-268	+5% $-181	+10% $-94
Rate	-1.0pp $-126	-0.5pp $-196	base $-268	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,225
• Closing costs: $8,427
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
513 E Baltimore St Taneytown, MD	3.0	2.0	1681	$1,900	$1.13	18d	1	0.55mi
400 Hancock St Taneytown, MD	3.0	4.0	1680	$2,650	$1.58	5d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (467 chars)

   Great opportunity on this ranch style home with basement. It offers approximately 1,284 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Built in 2002 repairs and updates are needed but has potential. Ceiling damages. Property sold "AS-IS" without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect prior bidding. Auction.

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $280,900 Active 467-char remark

   Show marketing remark (467 chars)

   Great opportunity on this ranch style home with basement. It offers approximately 1,284 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Built in 2002 repairs and updates are needed but has potential. Ceiling damages. Property sold "AS-IS" without contingencies, repairs, warranties, guarantees or representation as to listing accuracy, property information, photo or other depiction included or described herein. Inspect prior bidding. Auction.

3. 2002-07-17
   soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,953 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,953 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,735
• − Property taxes: −$4,953
• − Insurance: −$1,404
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − Depreciation: −$8,172
• Taxable loss: −$8,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,950
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400210
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $84,594
• Composite: 37.33/100
• National rank: #4441
• State rank: #2 of 24 in MD

Livability — Taneytown

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #6550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taneytown, MD
• Population (ZIP): 11,549

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,677 people
• By 2030: 169,605 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 166,205 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 158,312 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 143,013 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 122,431 · -27.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.2% · R 61.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: -31.2pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+23.7 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+31.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.27%
• Current HPI: 257.2289
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+251.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $280,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,953 · +14.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.