10510 Bay Hills Cir · Thonotosassa, FL 33592

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1986 5,719 sqft lot $165/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to 10510 Bay Hills Cir, Thonotosassa, FL 33592 – a charming and affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home that’s perfect for first-time homebuyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for comfort, functionality, and value in a desirable community. Step inside to discover a spacious and versatile living area, ideal for both relaxing and working from home. Currently configured as a combined family room and office space, this open layout offers flexibility to fit your lifestyle. The adjoining kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a convenient breakfast bar that flows seamlessly into the dining area—perfect fo

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Backyard patio
• Kitchen

Tags

• LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIMARY SUITE
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• BACKYARD PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#673 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Armwood High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 2,400 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $170k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.15%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,181
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $42,460
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33592

• Home prices YoY: -7.8%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $808/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$165
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,512

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $578	-5% $530	+0% $482	+5% $434	+10% $386
Rent	-10% $314	-5% $398	+0% $482	+5% $566	+10% $649
Rate	-1.0pp $567	-0.5pp $525	base $482	+0.5pp $438	+1.0pp $393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10605 Magnolia Dr Thonotosassa, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,500	$1.72	25d	1	0.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $165 · $1,980/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   listed $170,000 Active
3. 1985-09-01
   soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $808 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$603/yr (+$50/mo · 74.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$808
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − HOA: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $3,284
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$788
• After-tax cash flow: $4,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Thonotosassa

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #13914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thonotosassa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 12,333
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,333
• Household income: $68,802
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 306.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.90%
• Current HPI: 364.3745
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+243.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1985-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $808 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.