421 Las Lomas Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$399,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2017 0.51 ac lot $200/sqft · 25% below area Est $530k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This house is located just a few minutes away from DT Elgin, easy access to HW-290 it features, Ceiling Fans in all rooms, Title and laminate floors, recently built detached car garage and drive way. Covered back porch and Fire pit. Just too many features to name them all. You have to come see it to appreciate its beauty.

Key facts

• Fire pit
• Detached car garage
• Covered back porch

Tags

• CEILING FANS IN ALL ROOMS
• TITLE AND LAMINATE FLOORS
• DETACHED CAR GARAGE
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FIRE PIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (46.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (42.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (46.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Booker T Washington El (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 750 students, 89% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,978 (46.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.25%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $529,985
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -24.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
194 Elgin Woods Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (-10%)	9mo	$564,900	$312	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $150,982
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $497,853
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 14.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$612 /mo · $7,350/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-1,047

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,634

Max offer price $213,978

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-822	-5% $-934	+0% $-1,047	+5% $-1,160	+10% $-1,273
Rent	-10% $-1,230	-5% $-1,139	+0% $-1,047	+5% $-956	+10% $-865
Rate	-1.0pp $-846	-0.5pp $-946	base $-1,047	+0.5pp $-1,151	+1.0pp $-1,256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    listed $435,000 Active 323-char remark

    Show marketing remark (323 chars)

    This house is located just a few minutes away from DT Elgin, easy access to HW-290 it features, Ceiling Fans in all rooms, Title and laminate floors, recently built detached car garage and drive way. Covered back porch and Fire pit. Just too many features to name them all. You have to come see it to appreciate its beauty.

16. 2020-05-08
    soldstatus
17. 2020-05-06
    historical 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Home all-electric, Flooring Type Carpet, Tile, Laminate, Consist of 4 bedrooms 3 bath, 2 master and 2 regular bedrooms on carpet, Bathroom are all tiled, additional study/office, living room, dining room, on laminated floors, kitchen with pony wall for barstools as additional to breakfast area, 25% stone, 75% hardi-plank siding, Roof on asphalt shingle built-in 2017 concrete slab, 100% cedar fenced-in. * * seller says sell it!!! reduced by 75k * *

18. 2020-05-06
    soldstatus Sold 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Home all-electric, Flooring Type Carpet, Tile, Laminate, Consist of 4 bedrooms 3 bath, 2 master and 2 regular bedrooms on carpet, Bathroom are all tiled, additional study/office, living room, dining room, on laminated floors, kitchen with pony wall for barstools as additional to breakfast area, 25% stone, 75% hardi-plank siding, Roof on asphalt shingle built-in 2017 concrete slab, 100% cedar fenced-in. * * seller says sell it!!! reduced by 75k * *

19. 2020-04-14
    status Pending - Taking Backups 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Home all-electric, Flooring Type Carpet, Tile, Laminate, Consist of 4 bedrooms 3 bath, 2 master and 2 regular bedrooms on carpet, Bathroom are all tiled, additional study/office, living room, dining room, on laminated floors, kitchen with pony wall for barstools as additional to breakfast area, 25% stone, 75% hardi-plank siding, Roof on asphalt shingle built-in 2017 concrete slab, 100% cedar fenced-in. * * seller says sell it!!! reduced by 75k * *

20. 2020-04-06
    price $287,800 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Home all-electric, Flooring Type Carpet, Tile, Laminate, Consist of 4 bedrooms 3 bath, 2 master and 2 regular bedrooms on carpet, Bathroom are all tiled, additional study/office, living room, dining room, on laminated floors, kitchen with pony wall for barstools as additional to breakfast area, 25% stone, 75% hardi-plank siding, Roof on asphalt shingle built-in 2017 concrete slab, 100% cedar fenced-in. * * seller says sell it!!! reduced by 75k * *

21. 2020-03-28
    price $294,600 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Home all-electric, Flooring Type Carpet, Tile, Laminate, Consist of 4 bedrooms 3 bath, 2 master and 2 regular bedrooms on carpet, Bathroom are all tiled, additional study/office, living room, dining room, on laminated floors, kitchen with pony wall for barstools as additional to breakfast area, 25% stone, 75% hardi-plank siding, Roof on asphalt shingle built-in 2017 concrete slab, 100% cedar fenced-in. * * seller says sell it!!! reduced by 75k * *

22. 2020-03-16
    price $294,700 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Home all-electric, Flooring Type Carpet, Tile, Laminate, Consist of 4 bedrooms 3 bath, 2 master and 2 regular bedrooms on carpet, Bathroom are all tiled, additional study/office, living room, dining room, on laminated floors, kitchen with pony wall for barstools as additional to breakfast area, 25% stone, 75% hardi-plank siding, Roof on asphalt shingle built-in 2017 concrete slab, 100% cedar fenced-in. * * seller says sell it!!! reduced by 75k * *

23. 2020-03-02
    price $294,800 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Home all-electric, Flooring Type Carpet, Tile, Laminate, Consist of 4 bedrooms 3 bath, 2 master and 2 regular bedrooms on carpet, Bathroom are all tiled, additional study/office, living room, dining room, on laminated floors, kitchen with pony wall for barstools as additional to breakfast area, 25% stone, 75% hardi-plank siding, Roof on asphalt shingle built-in 2017 concrete slab, 100% cedar fenced-in. * * seller says sell it!!! reduced by 75k * *

24. 2020-02-17
    listed $369,890 Active 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Home all-electric, Flooring Type Carpet, Tile, Laminate, Consist of 4 bedrooms 3 bath, 2 master and 2 regular bedrooms on carpet, Bathroom are all tiled, additional study/office, living room, dining room, on laminated floors, kitchen with pony wall for barstools as additional to breakfast area, 25% stone, 75% hardi-plank siding, Roof on asphalt shingle built-in 2017 concrete slab, 100% cedar fenced-in. * * seller says sell it!!! reduced by 75k * *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,350 · $612/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,350 · $612/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$7,350
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$20,032
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,808
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+17.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $435,000 Unlock MLS
• 2020-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-05-06 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2020-05-06 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2020-04-14 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-04-06 Price Changed $287,800 Unlock MLS
• 2020-03-28 Price Changed $294,600 Unlock MLS
• 2020-03-16 Price Changed $294,700 Unlock MLS
• 2020-03-02 Price Changed $294,800 Unlock MLS
• 2020-02-17 Listed $369,890 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+57.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,350 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.