918 Moonshine Ln · San Marcos, TX 78132

$236,998

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,502 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $158/sqft · 37% below area Est $375k · 37% under $19/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance resources available
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA fee $112.50 paid semi-annually; Association transfer fee $450

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Water system (GBRA); Sewer system (SHWSC); Gas service provided by Unigas; Electric service provided by NBU; Garbage service provided by Frontier
• Home design: New construction by Lennar
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Brick and cement fiber exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen 18 x 8; Stove/Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath; Bedroom 2: 10 x 10; Bedroom 3: 11 x 10; Master bedroom dimensions: 12 x 13
• Flooring: Carpeting; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only and double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric and natural gas heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Breakfast bar; Utility room inside; Laundry room on main level; 1 living area; All bedrooms downstairs; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connection; Dryer connection; Laundry facilities on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-183 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hernandez El (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 525 students, 65% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1136 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($135k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,607 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.30%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,756
• List price: $236,998
• Delta: -36.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3755 Moon Hill Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-10%)	1mo	$209,999	$155	83
313 Hunter Ridge Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-4%)	7mo	$379,900	$265	57
306 Deerwood Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-5%)	4mo	$376,500	$263	55
110 Hunter Ridge Rd	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,694 (+13%)	4mo	$350,000	$207	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-55,465
• Equity at exit: $35,337

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-84,250
• Equity at exit: $20,491

Cash invested: $66,359 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1136
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,243
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$296 /mo · $3,555/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$19
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,097

Max offer price $210,569

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19	-5% $-101	+0% $-183	+5% $-265	+10% $-346
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-256	+0% $-183	+5% $-109	+10% $-35
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-122	base $-183	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,250
• Closing costs: $7,110
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Harmons Way Unit 109 San Marcos, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	9d	1	0.35mi
318 Hunter Ridge Rd San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,100	$1.08	45d	1	0.70mi
4334 Transportation Way San Marcos, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1127	$1,466	$1.30	0d	12	0.76mi
618 El Rio St San Marcos, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$1,508	$1.67	0d	28	0.79mi
405 Whitetail Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	45d	1	0.83mi
405 Whitetail Dr Unit A San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	16d	1	0.83mi
425 El Rio St San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,726	$1.62	3d	23	0.99mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1950	$1,995	$1.02	45d	1	0.99mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1950	$1,995	$1.02	19d	1	0.99mi
144 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,975	$1.13	25d	1	1.02mi
208 Shugart St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,899	$1.22	0d	1	1.13mi
145 Tortoise Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	2196	$2,100	$0.96	45d	1	1.22mi
502 Commercial Loop San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1222	$2,570	$2.10	0d	39	1.23mi
105 Switchgrass St San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,725	$1.47	45d	1	1.27mi
105 Switchgrass St San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,725	$1.47	16d	1	1.27mi
435 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	2021	$2,150	$1.06	25d	1	1.38mi
250 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,950	$1.25	16d	1	1.41mi
1044 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.5	1158	$1,675	$1.45	45d	1	1.44mi
140 Stewart Dr #102 San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.0	1521	$2,800	$1.84	3d	1	1.48mi
133 Camino Verde San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1931	$2,600	$1.35	6d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $19 · $228/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $236,998 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $236,998 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-05-16
   price $241,998 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

4. 2026-05-16
   price $241,998 558-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

5. 2026-05-01
   price $241,999 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

6. 2026-04-30
   price $241,999 558-char remark
7. 2026-04-27
   listed $258,999 Active 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   This new home offers a modern and low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio provides seamless entertaining and multitasking. All three bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home for improved comfort and convenience, including the luxurious owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

8. 2026-04-19
   listed $258,999 New 558-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,555
• − Insurance: −$1,185
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,791
• − Management: −$1,791
• − HOA: −$228
• − Depreciation: −$6,894
• Taxable loss: −$6,328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,519
• After-tax cash flow: $-673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $229,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-18 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $249,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-31 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-23 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $236,998 Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $236,998 LERA
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $239,998 Zillow
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $241,998 Zillow
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $241,998 LERA
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $241,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $241,999 LERA
• 2026-04-27 Listed $258,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-19 Listed $258,999 LERA