RC Conway Plan · Conroe, TX 77316

$271,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,333 sqft · SingleFamily · 378 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Upon entry into this new two-story home is a versatile kitchen/ dining area with a center island that overlooks the welcoming family room and covered patio, perfect for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The first floor also contains the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and an additional bedroom. On the top floor are the remaining two secondary bedrooms and a game room ideal for entertainment.

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Covered patio
• Center island

Tags

• VERSATILE KITCHEN DINING AREA
• CENTER ISLAND
• WELCOMING FAMILY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $271,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $282,130.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $272k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 378 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,752 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 378 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,130
• List price: $271,990
• Delta: -3.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14937 Alastair Ct	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-3%)	1mo	$309,490	$137	80
15024 Ronan Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-3%)	2mo	$313,790	$139	78
15048 Ronan Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-3%)	1mo	$315,790	$140	78
726 Amesbury Rd	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,609 (+12%)	2mo	$332,540	$127	68
15052 Ronan Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-9%)	0mo	$306,040	$144	66
15040 Ronan Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,121 (-9%)	1mo	$306,040	$144	66
6913 Nubuck Dr	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,128 (-9%)	0mo	$383,751	$180	66
6917 Nubuck Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,125 (-9%)	1mo	$375,602	$177	61
14949 Alastair Ct	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,609 (+12%)	1mo	$322,490	$124	61
14852 Shorthorn Run Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,137 (-8%)	2mo	$371,815	$174	59
15029 Ronan Dr	0.31mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,609 (+12%)	2mo	$326,540	$125	59
15043 Ronan Dr	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,609 (+12%)	2mo	$325,540	$125	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-63,465
• Equity at exit: $42,067

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-92,834
• Equity at exit: $24,393

Cash invested: $78,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,480
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$353 /mo · $4,232/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $254,637

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,533
• Closing costs: $8,464
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	7d	1	0.20mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	43d	1	0.47mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	20d	1	0.49mi
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	4d	1	0.51mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	43d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $271,990 Active 378 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $271,990 Active 377 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $271,990 Active 376 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $271,990 Active 375 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $271,990 Active 373 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $271,990 Active 369 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $271,990 Active 368 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $271,990 Active 367 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $271,990 Active 364 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $271,990 Active 363 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $271,990 Active 362 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $271,990 Active 361 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $271,990 Active 360 DOM
14. 2025-07-23
    price $271,990 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Upon entry into this new two-story home is a versatile kitchen/ dining area with a center island that overlooks the welcoming family room and covered patio, perfect for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The first floor also contains the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and an additional bedroom. On the top floor are the remaining two secondary bedrooms and a game room ideal for entertainment.

15. 2025-06-05
    listed $269,990 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    Upon entry into this new two-story home is a versatile kitchen/ dining area with a center island that overlooks the welcoming family room and covered patio, perfect for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The first floor also contains the private owner's suite with an attached bathroom and an additional bedroom. On the top floor are the remaining two secondary bedrooms and a game room ideal for entertainment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,730
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,232
• − Insurance: −$1,411
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,138
• − Management: −$2,138
• − Depreciation: −$8,207
• Taxable loss: −$7,200
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,728
• After-tax cash flow: $-552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-05 Listed $269,990 Zillow