30 Tarragon Way · New Lebanon, OH 45345

$249,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2021 10,454 sqft lot Est $225k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Better than new! This less than 1 year old property features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a loft, new appliances, a new large rear patio and much more!

Key facts

• Al fresco dining
• Versatile layout
• Inviting patio

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• INVITING PATIO
• AL FRESCO DINING
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREA
• VERSATILE LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Attached two-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Storm sewer; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: 2 stories; Frame construction with vinyl and wood siding; Slab foundation
• Construction: Frame, vinyl siding, and wood siding construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (13 x 17); Built-In Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main level bedroom (10 x 10); Second level bedroom (10 x 10); Second level bedroom (12 x 14)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 1 main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Entry/foyer; Living room; Loft; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room (6 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-953/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#450 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• New Lebanon Local (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #448 of 656 in OH (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $202k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $201,407 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $224,680
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
91 Tarragon Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-7%)	1mo	$238,000	$157	82
831 S Church St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,722 (+5%)	22mo	$320,000	$186	63
229 Blosser St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+5%)	1mo	$236,000	$137	63
630 Holderman Pl	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-13%)	7mo	$240,000	$169	63
107 Laredo Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,503 (-8%)	6mo	$195,000	$130	56
625 Holderman Pl	0.07mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,880 (+15%)	22mo	$265,000	$141	47
303 S Church St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,402 (-14%)	9mo	$145,000	$103	35
215 Mills Pl	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,394 (-15%)	20mo	$188,700	$135	30
718 Greyhound Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,466 (-11%)	19mo	$193,000	$132	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $130,554
• Equity at exit: $224,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $388,435
• Equity at exit: $483,752

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45345

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,132/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,115

Max offer price $234,971

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-9	+0% $-79	+5% $-150	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-159	+0% $-79	+5% $0	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $46	-0.5pp $-16	base $-79	+0.5pp $-144	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
570 Holderman Pl New Lebanon, OH	4.0	3.0	2007	$2,200	$1.10	3d	1	0.14mi
575 Holderman Pl New Lebanon, OH	4.0	3.0	2007	$2,200	$1.10	3d	1	0.16mi
20 Clinchfield Ct New Lebanon, OH	2.0	2.0	1362	$1,600	$1.17	3d	1	0.17mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $249,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,132 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,508 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: +$376/yr (+$31/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,132
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$5,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,264
• After-tax cash flow: $311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Lebanon Local
• NCES district ID: 3904871
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $45,363
• Composite: 41.88/100
• National rank: #3369
• State rank: #448 of 656 in OH

Livability — New Lebanon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #7342

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Lebanon, OH
• County: Montgomery · 506,435 people
• City population: 5,923
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH
• Population (ZIP): 5,923
• Household income: $77,279
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.9

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.56%
• Current HPI: 370.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+58.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $249,000 Dayton MLS
• 2022-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $202,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $200,000 Dayton MLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $200,000 Dayton MLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $200,000 Cincy MLS
• 2021-03-29 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2021-03-29 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2021-03-26 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2021-03-25 Relisted — Cincy MLS
• 2021-03-05 Contingent — Cincy MLS
• 2021-03-05 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2021-03-03 Listed $189,900 Dayton MLS
• 2021-02-25 Listed $189,900 Cincy MLS
• 2020-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-28 Sold (MLS) $156,990 Dayton MLS
• 2020-08-28 Sold (MLS) $156,990 Dayton MLS
• 2020-07-21 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2020-07-18 Listed $156,990 Dayton MLS
• 2020-04-08 Listing Removed — WRIST
• 2019-09-05 Listed $156,990 WRIST
• 2019-08-29 Listing Removed — WRIST
• 2019-07-14 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2019-05-03 Price Changed $156,990 Dayton MLS
• 2019-01-14 Listed $154,990 Dayton MLS
• 2019-01-11 Listed $156,990 WRIST

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,132 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.