9127 Park Ave · Semmes, AL 36575

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2012 10,018 sqft lot $158/sqft · 8% above area Est $227k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Possession 1 to 15 days

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• Full brick home

Tags

• FULL BRICK HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OVERSIZED FENCED BACKYARD
• SCREENED-IN COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No land lease; No pool or spa; No additional structures listed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Parking pad; Parking for 4 vehicles
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Public sewer; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 2012
• Construction: Brick (4 sides) construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Awnings; Back yard with privacy fencing; View available

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Stone countertops; Stained cabinets; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: 9-foot ceilings on the main level; Walk-in closets; Open floorplan in dining area; Stained cabinets and stone countertops in kitchen; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Semmes Elementary School (math 37% / reading 63%, grade D+, #119 of 627 statewide, top 19%, 546 students, 51% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 67% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $220k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.33%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,876
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -3.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9060 Park Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-2%)	7mo	$206,000	$151	88
9153 Michigan Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,385 (-0%)	18mo	$180,000	$130	81
9061 Park Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-2%)	21mo	$195,000	$144	75
8910 Larry Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+1%)	9mo	$225,000	$160	65
8882 Larry Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-0%)	22mo	$239,500	$173	60
3579 Wulff Rd E	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+12%)	12mo	$223,000	$143	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-15,047
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $13,107
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36575

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $597/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,639

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9340 Roberts Ln W Semmes, AL	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,050	$1.28	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $219,900 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $219,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $225,000 Active 604-char remark
19. 2019-09-09
    soldstatus $115,000 23-char remark

    Show marketing remark (23 chars)

    Possession 1 to 15 days

20. 2019-07-29
    soldstatus $115,000
21. 2009-06-12
    soldstatus $83,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $597 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 50.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$597
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable income: $252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$61
• After-tax cash flow: $3,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,444

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.58%
• Current HPI: 217.5112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+163.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $219,900 GCMLS AL
• 2026-05-13 Listed $225,000 GCMLS AL
• 2019-09-09 Sold (MLS) $115,000 GCMLS AL
• 2019-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2009-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $597 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.