290 Margarita Dr · Mustang Ridge, TX 78616

$240,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 319 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 0.40 ac lot $197/sqft · at area comps Est $233k · at est. ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come discover this charming mobile home nestled in the peaceful community of Dale, TX. This spacious residence offers 3 full bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, featuring a generous living room filled with natural light. The primary suite includes a relaxing garden tub, separate walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind. You'll love the bright and functional eat-in kitchen and dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer connections—perfect for everyday convenience. Step outside to enjoy your covered front porch, ideal for watching sunsets or sipping your morning coffee. With no HOA, the possibilities are endless to make this your perfect country escape. Whether you're dreaming of a garden, workshop, or just more room to breathe—this home offers the flexibility you need. And the location? You’re just 20 minutes from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and 10 minutes to Circuit of the Americas—giving you a peaceful setting with easy access to city amenities and events. Welcome home!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Walk-in shower
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• GENEROUS LIVING ROOM
• GARDEN TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $84 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.3% in Mustang Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#854 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bastrop ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #670 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $58k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.69%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,261
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: 2.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $136,084
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.90×
• Total profit: $396,524
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78616

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,201/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,036

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 319 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 318 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 317 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 316 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 310 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 309 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 308 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $240,000 Active 305 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 304 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 303 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 302 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 301 DOM
14. 2026-01-23
    price $240,000 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Come discover this charming mobile home nestled in the peaceful community of Dale, TX. This spacious residence offers 3 full bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, featuring a generous living room filled with natural light. The primary suite includes a relaxing garden tub, separate walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind. You'll love the bright and functional eat-in kitchen and dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer connections—perfect for everyday convenience. Step outside to enjoy your covered front porch, ideal for watching sunsets or sipping your morning coffee. With no HOA, the possibilities are endless to make this your perfect country escape. Whether you're dreaming of a garden, workshop, or just more room to breathe—this home offers the flexibility you need. And the location? You’re just 20 minutes from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and 10 minutes to Circuit of the Americas—giving you a peaceful setting with easy access to city amenities and events. Welcome home!

15. 2025-09-24
    price $270,000 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Come discover this charming mobile home nestled in the peaceful community of Dale, TX. This spacious residence offers 3 full bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, featuring a generous living room filled with natural light. The primary suite includes a relaxing garden tub, separate walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind. You'll love the bright and functional eat-in kitchen and dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer connections—perfect for everyday convenience. Step outside to enjoy your covered front porch, ideal for watching sunsets or sipping your morning coffee. With no HOA, the possibilities are endless to make this your perfect country escape. Whether you're dreaming of a garden, workshop, or just more room to breathe—this home offers the flexibility you need. And the location? You’re just 20 minutes from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and 10 minutes to Circuit of the Americas—giving you a peaceful setting with easy access to city amenities and events. Welcome home!

16. 2025-08-03
    listed $298,000 Active 1014-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1014 chars)

    Come discover this charming mobile home nestled in the peaceful community of Dale, TX. This spacious residence offers 3 full bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, featuring a generous living room filled with natural light. The primary suite includes a relaxing garden tub, separate walk-in shower, and ample space to unwind. You'll love the bright and functional eat-in kitchen and dedicated laundry room with washer and dryer connections—perfect for everyday convenience. Step outside to enjoy your covered front porch, ideal for watching sunsets or sipping your morning coffee. With no HOA, the possibilities are endless to make this your perfect country escape. Whether you're dreaming of a garden, workshop, or just more room to breathe—this home offers the flexibility you need. And the location? You’re just 20 minutes from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport and 10 minutes to Circuit of the Americas—giving you a peaceful setting with easy access to city amenities and events. Welcome home!

17. 2025-01-20
    price
18. 2024-10-31
    listed Active
19. 2024-07-30
    price
20. 2024-04-19
    listed Active
21. 2021-09-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,201 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,191/yr (+$183/mo · 99.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,713
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,201
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$726
• After-tax cash flow: $1,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming mobile home in Mustang Ridge, TX, offers a spacious and well-maintained interior with a good condition score. It's ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve the kitchen's functionality and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Replace the kitchen faucet — A new faucet can improve the kitchen's functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bastrop ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,010
• Composite: 23.87/100
• National rank: #7799
• State rank: #670 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mustang Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #854
• US rank: #15380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,008

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 48% White 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.00%
• Current HPI: 308.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $240,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $270,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-08-03 Listed $298,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-20 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-10-31 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-19 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2021-09-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,201 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.