9613 Belmont Ave · Lubbock, TX 79424

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,351 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1980 5,897 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,351 square feet of comfortable living space with a functional layout designed for everyday living. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making it ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with its own en-suite bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. A 2-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, and the manageable yard is perfect for easy upkeep. Located within the highly regarded Lubbock Independent School District, this home is a great option for first-time buyers, those looking to downsize, or investors seeking a solid opportunity. Enjoy the comfort of an established neighborhood with easy access to shopping, dining, and everything Lubbock has to offer.

Key facts

• Manageable yard
• Spacious living area
• Private retreat

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• MANAGEABLE YARD
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-383/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,895 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,177
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,022
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79424

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,305/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,709

Max offer price $184,256

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $22	+0% $-32	+5% $-86	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-98	+0% $-32	+5% $34	+10% $100
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $16	base $-32	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5513 95th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,575	$0.88	21d	1	0.17mi
9701 Abbeville Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,750	$0.96	21d	1	0.29mi
5545 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	0.32mi
9603 Elmwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	894	$975	$1.09	44d	1	0.37mi
9609 Elmwood Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	884	$1,050	$1.19	21d	1	0.37mi
5560 93rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,395	$1.02	21d	1	0.38mi
5216 94th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,900	$1.22	21d	1	0.39mi
10502 Beaufort Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,399	$1.36	44d	1	0.62mi
10506 Beaufort Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,399	$1.36	44d	1	0.64mi
5731 90th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,650	$1.10	21d	1	0.65mi
5706 87th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,550	$1.00	14d	1	0.71mi
5507 108th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,550	$0.98	21d	1	0.73mi
9806 Genoa Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,050	$1.16	44d	1	0.80mi
5534 111th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,800	$1.27	14d	1	0.89mi
5240 114th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	948	$1,384	$1.46	14d	7	1.00mi
7911 Albany Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1441	$1,350	$0.94	14d	1	1.08mi
7911 Albany Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,350	$0.94	21d	1	1.08mi
5102 80th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	870	$1,098	$1.26	44d	1	1.27mi
11620 Evanston Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,450	$1.07	21d	1	1.35mi
4424 105th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1452	$1,575	$1.08	14d	1	1.38mi
4423 106th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	1737	$1,650	$0.95	14d	1	1.39mi
11810 Evanston Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	44d	1	1.42mi
4416 105th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1873	$2,200	$1.17	14d	1	1.42mi
8310 Raleigh Ave Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,300	$0.92	14d	1	1.45mi
5415 73rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$1,849	$1.07	21d	1	1.46mi
10509 Quinton Ave Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1840	$1,750	$0.95	21d	1	1.47mi
11909 Evanston Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1445	$1,550	$1.07	44d	1	1.48mi
11913 Evanston Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1223	$1,450	$1.19	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $189,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-04-19
    listed $195,000 Active 865-char remark

    Show marketing remark (865 chars)

    This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,351 square feet of comfortable living space with a functional layout designed for everyday living. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making it ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with its own en-suite bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or growing needs. A 2-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, and the manageable yard is perfect for easy upkeep. Located within the highly regarded Lubbock Independent School District, this home is a great option for first-time buyers, those looking to downsize, or investors seeking a solid opportunity. Enjoy the comfort of an established neighborhood with easy access to shopping, dining, and everything Lubbock has to offer.

18. 1994-06-01
    soldstatus
19. 1994-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,305 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$170/yr (+$14/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,305
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$3,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$862
• After-tax cash flow: $479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,478
• Household income: $97,231
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1958.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.64%
• Current HPI: 213.2155
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $195,000 LARMLS
• 1994-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,305 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.