120 Goya Dr · Fairfield, CA 94534

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 1972 Est $261k · 43% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 120 Goya Drive in the Casa Nova: a sought-after 55+ community in Fairfield, CA. This charming home features 2 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open floor plan, newer LVP flooring, dual-pane vinyl windows, indoor laundry, mirrored closet doors, ceiling fans, a decorative fireplace, and recently resealed countertops. The kitchen offers a gas cooktop and double oven. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced private backyard with low-maintenance turf, and a mature lemon tree, plus an extra-wide carport with room for two vehicles. Enjoy the clubhouse, upgraded pool, library, and more. Don't miss out!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1972
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $620
• HOA & community: Not part of a homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Lot is land-leased (monthly space rent applies)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking for 2
• Utilities: Public sewer; Land lease applies
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (double wide); Faces north
• Construction: Metal roof; Vinyl skirting; Made by Le Baron / Baron Homes
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Fenced yard; Carport awning; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Double oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Gas cooktop; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with shower stall(s) and a sunken tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: One decorative fireplace; Sun room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $929 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Fairfield-Suisun Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #238 of 517 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.56%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,736
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Goya Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$280,000	$194	86
42 Goya Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	8mo	$225,000	$188	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $27,624
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $72,224
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94534

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $929

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,033	-5% $981	+0% $929	+5% $877	+10% $825
Rent	-10% $732	-5% $831	+0% $929	+5% $1,027	+10% $1,125
Rate	-1.0pp $1,004	-0.5pp $967	base $929	+0.5pp $890	+1.0pp $851

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2550 Hilborn Rd Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,563	$2.95	14d	16	0.18mi
2542 Vista Grande Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,850	$1.66	44d	1	0.55mi
1111 Alaska Ave Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	787	$2,249	$2.86	14d	10	0.58mi
2308 Pennsylvania Ave Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1852	$2,395	$1.29	44d	1	0.60mi
287 Camellia St Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,950	$1.69	14d	1	0.63mi
100 Hawthorn Dr Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	726	$2,249	$3.10	14d	11	0.75mi
3001 N Texas St Fairfield, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,374	$2.55	14d	8	0.82mi
2134 Union Ave Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,395	$2.52	44d	1	0.93mi
2543 Hastings Way Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$3,019	$1.88	44d	1	0.95mi
101 Tabor Ave Unit A Fairfield, CA	3.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	44d	1	1.07mi
195 E Pacific Ave Unit 19 Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,949	$1.95	14d	1	1.17mi
2578 Pembrook Way Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,650	$2.35	44d	1	1.21mi
451 Tabor Ave Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.5	1269	$2,500	$1.97	44d	1	1.22mi
175 Rogue Ct Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.5	1240	$2,500	$2.02	44d	1	1.23mi
362 Tabor Ave Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.5	1269	$2,500	$1.97	24d	1	1.25mi
2124 Santa Ana Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,020	$2.02	44d	1	1.25mi
1206 Dana Dr Unit 02 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,925	$1.75	44d	1	1.32mi
2217 Santa Fe Ct Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1398	$2,700	$1.93	44d	1	1.35mi
1240 Dana Dr Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	44d	1	1.39mi
2800 Dover Ave Unit G6 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,095	$2.21	24d	1	1.39mi
53 El Basset Ct Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	997	$2,100	$2.11	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 604-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $9,316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,236
• After-tax cash flow: $8,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield-Suisun Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613360
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,654
• Composite: 34.59/100
• National rank: #5157
• State rank: #238 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #10551

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 120,008
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,203
• Household income: $140,198
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Asian 24% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -360.51%
• Current HPI: 236.509
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $149,900 BAREIS
• 2026-05-07 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $180,000 BAREIS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $199,000 BAREIS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-12-14 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2025-11-08 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-09-17 Pending — BAREIS
• 2025-08-02 Listed $210,000 BAREIS