14455 Italy Ave · Dade City, FL 33523

$269,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 166 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $313k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enter the home from the front porch into a welcoming foyer, where two bedrooms are located at the front of the home and share a full bath. As you continue down the hall, you'll pass the laundry room, a coat closet, and access to the two-car garage. The home then opens into the kitchen, dining area, and family room, creating a spacious and inviting main living space. A patio is located just off the family room, perfect for outdoor relaxing. Tucked off the dining area is the primary bedroom, featuring a private bath and a generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Front porch
• Welcoming foyer

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• WELCOMING FOYER
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• COAT CLOSET
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• KITCHEN DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 14455 Italy Ave, Dade City, FL 33523; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $269,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec home (Moonbeam plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1675

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $211,888 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $313,225
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14505 Italy Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+2%)	2mo	$320,300	$187	92
14577 Italy Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+2%)	4mo	$316,050	$185	88
14483 Italy Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-8%)	3mo	$293,090	$191	83
36019 Canelli Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+2%)	1mo	$318,550	$186	82
14553 Italy Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-8%)	6mo	$287,990	$187	77
36137 Canelli Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,662 (-1%)	9mo	$314,990	$190	76
36071 Canelli Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-8%)	2mo	$308,080	$201	70
14489 Italy Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+13%)	1mo	$328,325	$173	70
14774 Italy Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-8%)	6mo	$289,990	$189	68
14393 Stresa Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,824 (+9%)	2mo	$301,940	$166	67
14595 Italy Ave	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+13%)	4mo	$314,099	$165	64
36057 Canelli Way	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+13%)	4mo	$330,049	$174	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $134,852
• Equity at exit: $243,228

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $406,793
• Equity at exit: $524,531

Cash invested: $75,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $242,218

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,498
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36111 Canelli Way Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,295	$1.14	2d	1	0.30mi
14907 Lucca Way Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	24d	1	0.53mi
36350 Spanish Rose Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,149	$1.18	4d	1	0.95mi
13253 Waterford Castle Dr Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,749	$1.47	2d	1	1.17mi
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	3d	1	1.21mi
13911 19th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,495	$0.93	4d	1	1.21mi
35514 Mahwah Ave Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2020	$2,400	$1.19	20d	1	1.30mi
36169 Trinity Glade Rd Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2181	$2,600	$1.19	11d	1	1.33mi
37329 Magnolia Ave Unit 1234471P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$3,391	$2.79	4d	1	1.34mi
36132 Trinity Glade Rd Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,425	$1.60	14d	1	1.35mi
12945 Ogden Glade Rd Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,195	$1.21	17d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $269,990 Active 166 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,034
• − Management: −$2,034
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$7,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,685
• After-tax cash flow: $-618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• City population: 21,077
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B