1910 SW 650 Rd · Holden, MO 64040

$127,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Other public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1958 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MULTIPLE OFFER SITUATION; HIGHEST AND BEST BY 5/12/26 AT 11:00AM. REMARKABLE FIND! 5 acre tract with a pond, fruit trees, septic system, electric, and a 24X40 metal outbuilding. Owners have not given any value to the 2 bedroom, 1 bath home with a covered back deck because it is not livable and needs to be tore down. Selling as-is. Pavers on the north side of the outbuilding, propane tank, and water tanks on the south side fo the outbuilding do not stay. This will go FAST!!!

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 1958
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $110k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (32.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $86k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.6% in Holden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#167 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Holden R-III (rural): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #176 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($882 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,852 (32.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.31%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $63,110
• Equity at exit: $114,862

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.34×
• Total profit: $190,685
• Equity at exit: $247,704

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64040

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $661/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $983

Max offer price $110,085

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFER SITUATION; HIGHEST AND BEST BY 5/12/26 AT 11:00AM. REMARKABLE FIND! 5 acre tract with a pond, fruit trees, septic system, electric, and a 24X40 metal outbuilding. Owners have not given any value to the 2 bedroom, 1 bath home with a covered back deck because it is not livable and needs to be tore down. Selling as-is. Pavers on the north side of the outbuilding, propane tank, and water tanks on the south side fo the outbuilding do not stay. This will go FAST!!!

2. 2026-05-10
   listed $127,500 Active 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFER SITUATION; HIGHEST AND BEST BY 5/12/26 AT 11:00AM. REMARKABLE FIND! 5 acre tract with a pond, fruit trees, septic system, electric, and a 24X40 metal outbuilding. Owners have not given any value to the 2 bedroom, 1 bath home with a covered back deck because it is not livable and needs to be tore down. Selling as-is. Pavers on the north side of the outbuilding, propane tank, and water tanks on the south side fo the outbuilding do not stay. This will go FAST!!!

3. 2026-04-22
   historical $127,500 479-char remark

   Show marketing remark (479 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFER SITUATION; HIGHEST AND BEST BY 5/12/26 AT 11:00AM. REMARKABLE FIND! 5 acre tract with a pond, fruit trees, septic system, electric, and a 24X40 metal outbuilding. Owners have not given any value to the 2 bedroom, 1 bath home with a covered back deck because it is not livable and needs to be tore down. Selling as-is. Pavers on the north side of the outbuilding, propane tank, and water tanks on the south side fo the outbuilding do not stay. This will go FAST!!!

4. 1999-03-23
   soldstatus 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Cute Farm Home. Detached 24x40 Garage With Concrete Floor, Electricity, Insulated, Galvanized & 30 Yr Warranty. 24x60 Machine Shed. Home Has Newer Siding, Deck, & Back Porch. Kingsville S. On T Hwy To Tt Then W On Tt To Rd 1871 South On 1871 To 650 Rd

5. 1999-03-01
   soldstatus
6. 1999-01-28
   listed $72,500 262-char remark

   Show marketing remark (262 chars)

   Cute Farm Home. Detached 24x40 Garage With Concrete Floor, Electricity, Insulated, Galvanized & 30 Yr Warranty. 24x60 Machine Shed. Home Has Newer Siding, Deck, & Back Porch. Kingsville S. On T Hwy To Tt Then W On Tt To Rd 1871 South On 1871 To 650 Rd

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $661 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$576/yr (+$48/mo · 87.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$661
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$824
• − Management: −$824
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable loss: −$3,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$839
• After-tax cash flow: $-344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holden R-III
• NCES district ID: 2914490
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,033
• Composite: 32.27/100
• National rank: #5759
• State rank: #176 of 324 in MO

Livability — Holden

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #8986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,968
• Population (ZIP): 5,968

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,794 people
• By 2030: 56,861 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 58,239 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 59,168 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 62,222 · +11.5%
• By 2100: 60,118 · +7.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.6) · D 29.5% · R 69.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -39.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.6 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+36.9 2012: R+24.2 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.92%
• Current HPI: 342.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+75.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Listed $127,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $127,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-23 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-01-28 Listed $72,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $661 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.