8015 Oakway · O'Fallon, MO 63368

$90,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · SingleFamily · 322 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $61/sqft · 73% below area $630/mo HOA · 33% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious Champion Prime 2025 double width home includes three bedrooms and two baths. With a spacious living area, the home includes a laundry room, nice working kitchen and a deck. You will love the amenities at Pin Oak Pointe.

Key facts

• Working kitchen
• Laundry room
• Deck

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM
• WORKING KITCHEN
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $91k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $271 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $91k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $629 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 322 days — a 12% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 33% of rent.

Recommended offer $80,075 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 322 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.77%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,840
• List price: $90,995
• Delta: -72.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
309 Dalriada Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-5%)	16mo	$464,254	$327	56
70 Mora Blvd Unit 432-402	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,363 (-9%)	14mo	$331,194	$243	55
68 Mora Blvd Unit 432-401	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,363 (-9%)	14mo	$340,570	$250	55
52 Mora Blvd Unit 424-403	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,363 (-9%)	16mo	$333,280	$245	54
38 Mora Blvd Unit 420-401	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,363 (-9%)	17mo	$340,691	$250	54
706 English Ivy	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (-13%)	10mo	$379,000	$293	52
60 Mora Blvd Unit 428-402	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,363 (-9%)	19mo	$354,002	$260	52
35 Heatherwood Ct	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,452 (-3%)	11mo	$325,000	$224	49
175 Noahs Mill Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (+2%)	13mo	$379,900	$249	48
176 Noahs Mill Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (+8%)	8mo	$434,900	$271	42
8 Marian Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,286 (-14%)	11mo	$285,000	$222	39
2355 Post Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-13%)	14mo	$264,900	$204	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $233
• Equity at exit: $13,568

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $13,326
• Equity at exit: $7,868

Cash invested: $25,479 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63368

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$477
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$114 /mo · $1,365/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$630
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $271

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,593

Max offer price $90,995

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,749
• Closing costs: $2,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
440 Wild Oak Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.5	1214	$1,625	$1.34	11d	1	0.26mi
314 Newbridge Way O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,100	$1.54	2d	1	0.29mi
60 Mora Blvd O Fallon, MO	3.0	2.5	1363	$2,150	$1.58	23d	1	0.36mi
333 Wild Oak Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1568	$2,300	$1.47	43d	1	0.39mi
13300 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,450	$1.42	7d	1	0.40mi
9200 Spring Creek Ln O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	43d	1	0.45mi
9201 Spring Creek Ln Unit 9201 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,600	$1.58	4d	1	0.45mi
6303 Spring River Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,697	$1.67	43d	1	0.57mi
4103 Spring River Dr Unit 4103 O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,600	$1.52	16d	1	0.60mi
214 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	17d	1	0.82mi
234 Harmony Meadows Ct O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	23d	1	0.82mi
710 Alban Aly Unit O O'Fallon, MO	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,400	$1.57	1d	1	0.93mi
101 Lemon Dr Lake St Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,228	$2.22	1d	16	1.03mi
284 Stonewall Creek Dr O Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,575	$1.47	43d	1	1.05mi
55 Timber Oaks Trl O'Fallon, MO	2.0	2.0	985	$1,600	$1.62	43d	1	1.08mi
102 Ripple creek Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1599	$2,600	$1.63	1d	4	1.18mi
1007 Carpathian Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1524	$2,191	$1.44	7d	1	1.24mi
104 Shire Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1462	$2,781	$1.90	4d	1	1.31mi
603 Country Village Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	10d	1	1.32mi
1124 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,495	$1.32	43d	1	1.37mi
4133 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,600	$1.42	43d	1	1.37mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake St Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	14d	1	1.39mi
5114 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,450	$1.30	10d	1	1.39mi
5123 Welsh Dr Lake Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,425	$1.26	7d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $630 · $7,560/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,995 Active 322 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,995 Active 321 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,995 Active 320 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,995 Active 319 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,995 Active 317 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,995 Active 316 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,995 Active 313 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,995 Active 312 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,995 Active 311 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,995 Active 308 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,995 Active 307 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,995 Active 306 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,995 Active 305 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,995 Active 304 DOM
15. 2025-07-31
    listed $90,995 Active 233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (233 chars)

    This spacious Champion Prime 2025 double width home includes three bedrooms and two baths. With a spacious living area, the home includes a laundry room, nice working kitchen and a deck. You will love the amenities at Pin Oak Pointe.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,097
• − Property taxes: −$1,365
• − Insurance: −$455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − HOA: −$7,560
• − Depreciation: −$2,647
• Taxable income: $2,398
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$576
• After-tax cash flow: $2,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in a desirable neighborhood offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wentzville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2931650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,961
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2994
• State rank: #32 of 324 in MO

Livability — O'Fallon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: O'Fallon, MO
• County: Saint Charles County · 399,703 people
• City population: 45,862
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 46,966
• Household income: $124,297
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (St. Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,857 people
• By 2030: 461,707 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 503,222 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 534,684 · +22.1%
• By 2075: 597,047 · +36.4%
• By 2100: 609,682 · +39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Charles

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.7pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+17.5 2016: R+26.4 2012: R+21.0 2008: R+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 219.7731
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-31 Listed $90,995 Zillow