8804 226th St E #21 · Graham, WA 98338

$174,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2022 Est $130k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautiful 2022-built home in the desirable all-ages Shadow Pines community! Offering 1,296 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space, this move-in-ready home features 2 bedrooms, 1.75 bathrooms, a bright open-concept layout, and abundant natural light throughout. The spacious kitchen boasts a large island, eating area, and an oversized walk-in pantry, flowing seamlessly into the great room and dining area—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite includes a full bath with a soaking tub and walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms are situated on the opposite side of the home for added privacy. Enjoy relaxing on the covered fr

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Greenbelt setting
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE ISLAND
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GREENBELT SETTING
• ESTABLISHED GARDEN BEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Taxes listed (verify independently); Buyer brokerage compensation indicated
• Financial info: Land lease: $950/month; Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Shadow Pines park; Park amenities: common area, high-speed internet available, RV parking; Park approved for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking; RV parking available in park
• Utilities: Electric energy; Electric water heater; Shared well (community billed by park); Septic; Power service by PSE
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Tie-down foundation
• Construction: Composition roof; Manufactured house structure; Mobile home remains
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Dead-end street; Paved lot; Patio/porch/deck; Awnings; Landscaped; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Jetted/soaking tub; Walk-in closet; Den/office; Dining room; Entry; Kitchen with eating space; Living room; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.6% in Graham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#373 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Bethel School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #103 of 291 in WA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $174,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.69%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $129,600
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22505 91st Ave E	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	6mo	$113,300	$84	80
9016 220th Street Ct E	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-1%)	3mo	$405,000	$314	79
9005 219th Street Ct E	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+3%)	1mo	$380,000	$284	72
22607 91st Avenue Ct E #10	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+4%)	15mo	$150,000	$112	70
22210 92nd Avenue Ct E #6	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-0%)	17mo	$130,000	$100	69
8911 226th St E #18	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-8%)	18mo	$105,000	$88	67
22716 91st Avenue Ct E #40	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-5%)	20mo	$120,000	$97	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $39,342
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $123,964
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98338

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,752/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $1,049

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $174,999

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,999 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,999 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,999 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,999 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,999 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $174,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,752 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,752 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,752
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,656
• − Management: −$2,656
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $10,366
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,488
• After-tax cash flow: $10,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethel School District
• NCES district ID: 5300480
• Math proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $65,872
• Composite: 48.66/100
• National rank: #4568
• State rank: #103 of 291 in WA

Livability — Graham

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #373
• US rank: #14219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graham, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 32,687
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 32,687
• Household income: $114,819
• Rent vs Own: 15.5% rent · 84.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 236.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 3% Black 3% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -501.28%
• Current HPI: 304.4241
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.32%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+293.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $174,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-31 Sold (MLS) $194,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-15 Listed $194,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-22 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-22 Sold (MLS) $42,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-09 Price Changed $42,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-11 Price Changed $42,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-08 Listed $44,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+185.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,752 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.