1015 S Lincoln St · Aberdeen, SD 57401

$153,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1920 6,969 sqft lot Est $202k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home featuring 4 bedrooms, one stall tandem garage and spacious backyard. Updated kitchen, and flooring on main level. Master bedroom and bath located on the main level, deck off of the dining room and original wood working throughout!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1920

Tags

• PRIVATE EN SUITE BATH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• ATTACHED SINGLE-STALL GARAGE
• VALUABLE WORKSHOP AREA
• MAINTENANCE-FREE SIDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage (1.5 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Sewer and water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot approximately 0.16 acres (50 x 142)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: 13 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; Range Hood; Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Aberdeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#7 in SD, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Aberdeen School District 06-1 (town): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #33 of 59 in SD (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 86 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brown County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,475 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $201,690
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 SW 8th Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (-1%)	1mo	$95,000	$64	75
209 SE 9th Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (0%)	11mo	$225,000	$151	74
124 SW 13th Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (+4%)	6mo	$220,000	$141	66
1514 S Main St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,547 (+4%)	2mo	$235,000	$152	66
612 S Arch St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-4%)	1mo	$145,000	$101	65
1404 S 2nd St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (-6%)	3mo	$179,000	$127	58
516 SE 10th Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+10%)	3mo	$210,000	$128	58
1737 S 3rd St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (-0%)	8mo	$176,000	$118	54
1518 S Lincoln St	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,372 (-8%)	11mo	$115,000	$84	50
1431 Dick Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (-8%)	3mo	$297,500	$216	47
1524 S 1st St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+11%)	6mo	$261,500	$157	46
501 S Dakota St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,538 (+3%)	10mo	$208,100	$135	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-32,331
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-37,816
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57401

• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,262/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $132,045

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1116 S Main St Aberdeen, SD	2.0	1.0	930	$1,020	$1.10	43d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $153,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $153,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $153,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $153,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $153,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $153,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $153,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $153,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $153,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,262 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,262 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$2,262
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable loss: −$4,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$985
• After-tax cash flow: $-438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aberdeen School District 06-1
• NCES district ID: 4602070
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,230
• Composite: 42.27/100
• National rank: #3273
• State rank: #33 of 59 in SD

Livability — Aberdeen

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aberdeen, SD
• County: Brown County · 31,939 people
• City population: 31,939
• Metro: Aberdeen, SD
• Population (ZIP): 31,939
• Household income: $68,835
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1220.0

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,830 people
• By 2030: 46,663 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 52,852 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 59,898 · +36.7%
• By 2075: 82,750 · +88.8%
• By 2100: 112,639 · +157.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 6% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Philippines
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.8) · D 35.6% · R 62.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: -26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.8 2020: R+23.0 2016: R+25.8 2012: R+6.7 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -224.77%
• Current HPI: 185.713
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

+33.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $153,000 ABOR
• 2016-12-16 Sold (MLS) $110,000 ABOR
• 2016-11-17 Listed $114,900 ABOR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,262 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.