106 Mccormick Pl · Williamsburg, VA 23185

$369,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,720 sqft · Townhouse public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2018 $215/sqft · 5% below area Est $395k · 6% under $160/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Whittaker’s Mill, where comfort, convenience, and easy living come together. This three-story townhome is designed for a flexible lifestyle, offering spaces that adapt to how you live, work, and unwind.The entry-level flex space is perfect for a home office, gym, or media room. The main level serves as the heart of the home with an open-concept layout where the kitchen with center island flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas which are ideal for gathering or relaxing.Upstairs, the private bedroom level offers a peaceful retreat, including a spacious primary suite designed for comfort and rest.Residents enjoy community amenities such as a pool, fitness center, and playground, along with included lawn care and trash service for low-maintenance living. Conveniently located just minutes from Fort Eustis, I-64, Colonial Williamsburg, and Water Country USA, this home offers the perfect blend of lifestyle and location.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Community amenities
• Pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE BEDROOM LEVEL
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-406 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• York County Public School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 87% proficiency, ranked #3 of 131 in VA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Magruder Elementary (math 68% / reading 78%, grade A, #259 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 663 students, 47% FRL); Queens Lake Middle (math 67% / reading 82%, grade A, #50 of 342 statewide, top 16%, 574 students, 42% FRL); Bruton High (math 62% / reading 87%, grade B+, #107 of 319 statewide, top 37%, 711 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 15% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 187 units permitted in York County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• York County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,083 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.70%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,650
• List price: $369,900
• Delta: -6.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Albert Herrmann Dr	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,940 (+13%)	10mo	$362,500	$187	64
113 Albert Herrmann Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,960 (+14%)	13mo	$365,000	$186	64
405 Clements Mill Trce	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,960 (+14%)	20mo	$357,000	$182	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-79,883
• Equity at exit: $55,153

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-77,447
• Equity at exit: $31,982

Cash invested: $103,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23185

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 389
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,576/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,125

Max offer price $298,168

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-197	-5% $-301	+0% $-406	+5% $-511	+10% $-615
Rent	-10% $-612	-5% $-509	+0% $-406	+5% $-303	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-220	-0.5pp $-312	base $-406	+0.5pp $-502	+1.0pp $-599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,475
• Closing costs: $11,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Starkey Pl Williamsburg, VA	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,995	$1.38	45d	1	0.84mi
113 Ironsmith Way Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	2249	$2,750	$1.22	9d	1	1.00mi
1200 Marquis Pkwy Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$3,263	$3.18	3d	32	1.06mi
612 Queens Creek Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	2108	$2,495	$1.18	3d	1	1.08mi
105 Chardonnay Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,895	$1.68	45d	1	1.10mi
1183 Penniman Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1098	$2,075	$1.89	3d	1	1.14mi
104 Merlot Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1467	$2,350	$1.60	45d	1	1.17mi
304 Brittania Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1545	$2,650	$1.72	14d	1	1.32mi
112 Semple Rd Unit NA Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,100	$1.88	3d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingpoolgym

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   price $369,900 953-char remark

   Show marketing remark (953 chars)

   Welcome to Whittaker’s Mill, where comfort, convenience, and easy living come together. This three-story townhome is designed for a flexible lifestyle, offering spaces that adapt to how you live, work, and unwind.The entry-level flex space is perfect for a home office, gym, or media room. The main level serves as the heart of the home with an open-concept layout where the kitchen with center island flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas which are ideal for gathering or relaxing.Upstairs, the private bedroom level offers a peaceful retreat, including a spacious primary suite designed for comfort and rest.Residents enjoy community amenities such as a pool, fitness center, and playground, along with included lawn care and trash service for low-maintenance living. Conveniently located just minutes from Fort Eustis, I-64, Colonial Williamsburg, and Water Country USA, this home offers the perfect blend of lifestyle and location.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $375,000 Active 953-char remark

   Show marketing remark (953 chars)

   Welcome to Whittaker’s Mill, where comfort, convenience, and easy living come together. This three-story townhome is designed for a flexible lifestyle, offering spaces that adapt to how you live, work, and unwind.The entry-level flex space is perfect for a home office, gym, or media room. The main level serves as the heart of the home with an open-concept layout where the kitchen with center island flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas which are ideal for gathering or relaxing.Upstairs, the private bedroom level offers a peaceful retreat, including a spacious primary suite designed for comfort and rest.Residents enjoy community amenities such as a pool, fitness center, and playground, along with included lawn care and trash service for low-maintenance living. Conveniently located just minutes from Fort Eustis, I-64, Colonial Williamsburg, and Water Country USA, this home offers the perfect blend of lifestyle and location.

3. 2026-04-14
   historical
4. 2026-04-01
   listed $375,000 Active
5. 2026-04-01
   listed $375,000 Active
6. 2022-07-09
   price $2,100
7. 2022-07-03
   status Pending
8. 2022-07-03
   status Under Contract
9. 2022-07-03
   listed Active Under Contract
10. 2022-07-02
    historical
11. 2022-07-01
    listed $315,000 Active
12. 2022-07-01
    listed $315,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,576 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,033 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$457/yr (+$38/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,720
• − Property taxes: −$2,576
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,506
• − Management: −$2,506
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$10,761
• Taxable loss: −$11,510
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,762
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: York County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104150
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 87% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,985
• Composite: 72.34/100
• National rank: #202
• State rank: #3 of 131 in VA

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamsburg City · 55,270 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,270
• Household income: $105,431
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,000 people
• By 2030: 78,122 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 83,329 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 87,381 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 99,308 · +32.4%
• By 2100: 101,751 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.3% · R 52.4% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.9pp toward D · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.15%
• Current HPI: 240.1637
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+17.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $369,900 REINMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $375,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $375,000 WMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $375,000 REINMLS
• 2022-07-09 Price Changed $2,100 RENT.
• 2022-07-03 Pending — WMLS
• 2022-07-03 Pending — REINMLS
• 2022-07-03 Listed — REINMLS
• 2022-07-02 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2022-07-01 Listed $315,000 REINMLS
• 2022-07-01 Listed $315,000 WMLS

Property tax history

-2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,576 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.