2966 Cedar Creek Rd · Fayetteville, NC 28312

$245,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1973 3.65 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to peaceful country living with room to breathe! This charming one-story home sits on about 3.65 acres and offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, along with two additional flexible rooms that provide endless possibilities for your needs. One of the extra rooms includes access to a full bathroom and could easily function as a guest room, office, hobby space, or additional sleeping area (no closet). The home has been freshly updated with new interior paint and brand-new carpet, making it truly move-in ready for its next owners. The layout offers comfortable, single-level living with functional spaces designed for both everyday life and entertaining. Step outside and enjoy the beauty

Key facts

• Flexible rooms
• New carpet
• 29.79 acre tract

Tags

• FLEXIBLE ROOMS
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CARPET
• SINGLE LEVEL LIVING
• 29.79 ACRE TRACT
• 3.55 ACRES CONVEYED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned A1 (Agricultural District); Level lot topography; Approximately 3.65 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank and septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered front porch; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Storage; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit on main level; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J W Seabrook Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 269 students, 99% FRL); Mac Williams Middle (math 40% / reading 50%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,151 students, 58% FRL); Cape Fear High (math 75% / reading 47%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,529 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $245k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,991 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,975
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3242 Willard Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,128 (+10%)	14mo	$176,900	$157	49
3515 Elsie Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,169 (+14%)	16mo	$185,900	$159	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $116,799
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $356,996
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28312

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,888/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,060

Max offer price $198,902

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-192	+0% $-261	+5% $-330	+10% $-400
Rent	-10% $-398	-5% $-329	+0% $-261	+5% $-193	+10% $-124
Rate	-1.0pp $-138	-0.5pp $-199	base $-261	+0.5pp $-324	+1.0pp $-389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   status Active
3. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-06
   listed $245,000 Active
5. 2024-02-01
   historical $1,295
6. 2023-12-21
   price $1,295
7. 2023-12-07
   price $1,450
8. 2023-12-06
   listed $1,295
9. 2002-03-28
   soldstatus $155,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,888 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,759
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,888
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$7,527
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,806
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 226,118
• Population (ZIP): 19,889

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.75%
• Current HPI: 306.7749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+58.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-10 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $245,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-02-01 Rental Removed $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2023-12-21 Price Changed $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2023-12-07 Price Changed $1,450 APPFOLIO
• 2023-12-06 Listed for Rent $1,295 APPFOLIO
• 2002-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,888 · +37.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.